Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Rayonier Advanced Materials Inc. (RYAM)

$3.685

+0.13 (+3.51%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -36.42 | 3.685 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 961.332,134.411,775.391,738.901,4081,704.112,062.482,496.233,021.193,656.56
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 482.11381.03161.44176.89243356.25431.17521.84631.59764.41
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 385.14232.628.1625.43104205.41248.61300.90364.18440.76
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 96.96148.42153.28151.46139150.83182.55220.94267.41323.65
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 96.23108.9764.0393.65253143.41173.56210.07254.24307.71
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 181.30222.38181.66237.87187.22226.60274.25331.93401.73486.22
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 302.09321.38251.18233.48260.68315.50381.85462.15559.34676.97
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 157.92192.74153.18156.72151.71183.61222.22268.96325.52393.98
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -75.04-132.21-102.81-77.16-95-105.57-127.77-154.64-187.16-226.53
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 3.685
Beta 3.195
Diluted Shares Outstanding 63.43
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 179.52
After-tax Cost of Debt -6.25%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 18.785
Total Debt 929
Total Equity 233.74
Total Capital 1,162.74
Debt Weighting 79.90
Equity Weighting 20.10
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 961.332,134.411,775.391,738.901,4081,704.112,062.482,496.233,021.193,656.56
EBITDA 482.11381.03161.44176.89243356.25431.17521.84631.59764.41
EBIT 385.14232.628.1625.43104205.41248.61300.90364.18440.76
Tax Rate 5.72%25.43%84.86%101.21%179.52%79.35%79.35%79.35%79.35%79.35%
EBIAT 363.10173.461.24-0.31-82.7042.4251.3462.1475.2191.03
Depreciation 96.96148.42153.28151.46139150.83182.55220.94267.41323.65
Accounts Receivable --41.0840.72-56.2150.64-39.37-47.65-57.68-69.81-84.49
Inventories --19.2970.2017.70-27.19-54.82-66.35-80.30-97.19-117.63
Accounts Payable -34.81-39.563.54-5.0131.9038.6146.7356.5668.46
Capital Expenditure -75.04-132.21-102.81-77.16-95-105.57-127.77-154.64-187.16-226.53
UFCF 385.02164.11123.0639.03-20.2625.3930.7337.2045.0254.49
WACC
PV UFCF 25.7131.5038.5947.2957.94
SUM PV UFCF 201.03

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) -1.22
Free cash flow (t + 1) 55.58
Terminal Value -1,726.07
Present Value of Terminal Value -1,835.32

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -1,634.30
Net Debt 676
Equity Value -2,310.30
Shares Outstanding 63.43
Equity Value Per Share -36.42