Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Rayonier Advanced Materials Inc. (RYAM)
$3.39
+0.08 (+2.42%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 2,134 | 1,775 | 1,739 | 1,408 | 1,717 | 1,648.58 | 1,582.89 | 1,519.82 | 1,459.26 | 1,401.11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 360 | 70 | 178 | 128 | 168 | 164.61 | 158.05 | 151.75 | 145.71 | 139.90 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 212 | -83 | 27 | -11 | 33 | 26.22 | 25.17 | 24.17 | 23.21 | 22.28 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 148 | 153 | 151 | 139 | 135 | 138.39 | 132.88 | 127.58 | 122.50 | 117.62 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 109 | 64 | 94 | 253 | 152 | 134.99 | 129.61 | 124.44 | 119.48 | 114.72 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 222.38 | 181.66 | 237.86 | 203.01 | 212.72 | 201.59 | 193.56 | 185.85 | 178.44 | 171.33 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 321.38 | 251.18 | 233.48 | 230.69 | 265.33 | 245.56 | 235.77 | 226.38 | 217.36 | 208.69 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 192.74 | 153.18 | 156.72 | 169.46 | 163.96 | 159.12 | 152.78 | 146.69 | 140.84 | 135.23 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -132 | -103 | -77 | -95 | -138 | -102.87 | -98.77 | -94.84 | -91.06 | -87.43 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 3.39 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 3.199 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 63.91 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | -4.17 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 7.74% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 19.835 |
| Total Debt | 853 |
| Total Equity | 216.65 |
| Total Capital | 1,069.65 |
| Debt Weighting | 79.75 |
| Equity Weighting | 20.25 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 2,134 | 1,775 | 1,739 | 1,408 | 1,717 | 1,648.58 | 1,582.89 | 1,519.82 | 1,459.26 | 1,401.11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 360 | 70 | 178 | 128 | 168 | 164.61 | 158.05 | 151.75 | 145.71 | 139.90 |
| EBIT | 212 | -83 | 27 | -11 | 33 | 26.22 | 25.17 | 24.17 | 23.21 | 22.28 |
| Tax Rate | 25.58% | 20.27% | 102.17% | 42.17% | -4.17% | 37.21% | 37.21% | 37.21% | 37.21% | 37.21% |
| EBIAT | 157.77 | -66.18 | -0.59 | -6.36 | 34.38 | 16.46 | 15.81 | 15.18 | 14.57 | 13.99 |
| Depreciation | 148 | 153 | 151 | 139 | 135 | 138.39 | 132.88 | 127.58 | 122.50 | 117.62 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | 40.72 | -56.21 | 34.85 | -9.71 | 11.13 | 8.03 | 7.71 | 7.41 | 7.11 |
| Inventories | - | 70.20 | 17.70 | 2.79 | -34.64 | 19.78 | 9.78 | 9.39 | 9.02 | 8.66 |
| Accounts Payable | - | -39.56 | 3.54 | 12.74 | -5.49 | -4.85 | -6.34 | -6.09 | -5.85 | -5.61 |
| Capital Expenditure | -132 | -103 | -77 | -95 | -138 | -102.87 | -98.77 | -94.84 | -91.06 | -87.43 |
| UFCF | 173.77 | 55.18 | 38.44 | 88.02 | -18.47 | 78.04 | 61.39 | 58.94 | 56.59 | 54.34 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 70.83 | 50.56 | 44.05 | 38.39 | 33.45 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 237.28 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 10.19 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 55.42 |
| Terminal Value | 676.73 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 416.59 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 653.86 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 701 |
| Equity Value | -47.14 |
| Shares Outstanding | 63.91 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -0.74 |