Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Ryerson Holding Corporation (RYI)

$28.36

-0.38 (-1.32%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 31.10 | 28.36 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 4,408.404,501.603,466.605,675.306,485.667,411.728,470.029,679.4311,061.5212,640.96
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 268.40266.5039.70494.90354.67405.31463.18529.32604.90691.27
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 215.50208.10-14.20439273311.98356.52407.43465.60532.08
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 52.9058.4053.9055.9081.6793.33106.66121.89139.30159.18
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 23.201161.4051.2055.8463.8172.9383.3495.24108.84
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 521425.10378.90630.80702.18802.44917.021,047.961,197.591,368.59
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 806.30742.90604.50832.101,084.611,239.481,416.461,618.711,849.842,113.97
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 390.20311.50365.10481.20563.96644.48736.51841.67961.851,099.19
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -38.40-45.80-26-59.30-59.72-68.25-78-89.13-101.86-116.40
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 28.36
Beta 1.728
Diluted Shares Outstanding 39.09
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 25.38
After-tax Cost of Debt 4.48%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 11.980
Total Debt 849
Total Equity 1,108.62
Total Capital 1,957.62
Debt Weighting 43.37
Equity Weighting 56.63
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 4,408.404,501.603,466.605,675.306,485.667,411.728,470.029,679.4311,061.5212,640.96
EBITDA 268.40266.5039.70494.90354.67405.31463.18529.32604.90691.27
EBIT 215.50208.10-14.20439273311.98356.52407.43465.60532.08
Tax Rate 9.17%28.47%26.97%24.36%25.38%22.87%22.87%22.87%22.87%22.87%
EBIAT 195.74148.85-10.37332.04203.71240.62274.98314.24359.11410.39
Depreciation 52.9058.4053.9055.9081.6793.33106.66121.89139.30159.18
Accounts Receivable -95.9046.20-251.90-71.38-100.26-114.58-130.94-149.63-171
Inventories -63.40138.40-227.60-252.51-154.87-176.98-202.25-231.13-264.13
Accounts Payable --78.7053.60116.1082.7680.5392.02105.16120.18137.34
Capital Expenditure -38.40-45.80-26-59.30-59.72-68.25-78-89.13-101.86-116.40
UFCF 210.24242.05255.73-34.76-15.4791.10104.11118.98135.97155.38
WACC
PV UFCF -15.4783.7988.0692.5697.28102.25
SUM PV UFCF 463.94

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 8.73
Free cash flow (t + 1) 158.49
Terminal Value 2,354.94
Present Value of Terminal Value 1,549.65

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 2,013.59
Net Debt 797.80
Equity Value 1,215.79
Shares Outstanding 39.09
Equity Value Per Share 31.10