Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Samse SA (SAMS.PA)

169 €

-1.00 (-0.59%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 5.95 | 169 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 1,222.011,340.291,426.821,541.941,666.341,800.771,946.052,103.062,272.732,456.082,654.23
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 78.5690.4688.4099.58107.61116.29125.67135.81146.77158.61171.41
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 49.3057.3157.8363.5568.6774.2180.2086.6793.66101.22109.39
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 29.2633.1530.5736.0338.9442.0845.4749.1453.1157.3962.02
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 113.50113.0192.57124.42134.46145.31157.03169.70183.39198.19214.18
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables -----------
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 235.63251.11271.31293.13316.78342.34369.96399.81432.06466.92504.59
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 161.54186.45192.98208.96225.82244.04263.72285307.99332.84359.70
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -35.68-43.34-35.03-44.25-47.82-51.67-55.84-60.35-65.22-70.48-76.16
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 169
Beta 0.935
Diluted Shares Outstanding 107.49
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 23.00
After-tax Cost of Debt 0.72%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 8.215
Total Debt 350.86
Total Equity 18,165.13
Total Capital 18,515.99
Debt Weighting 1.89
Equity Weighting 98.11
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 1,222.011,340.291,426.821,541.941,666.341,800.771,946.052,103.062,272.732,456.082,654.23
EBITDA 78.5690.4688.4099.58107.61116.29125.67135.81146.77158.61171.41
EBIT 49.3057.3157.8363.5568.6774.2180.2086.6793.66101.22109.39
Tax Rate 23.20%24.29%23.99%24.97%30.38%23.00%24.97%24.97%24.97%24.97%24.97%
EBIAT 37.8643.4043.9647.6847.8157.1460.1765.0370.2775.9482.07
Depreciation 29.2633.1530.5736.0338.9442.0845.4749.1453.1157.3962.02
Accounts Receivable -----------
Inventories --15.48-20.20-21.82-23.65-25.56-27.62-29.85-32.26-34.86-37.67
Accounts Payable -24.916.5315.9816.8618.2219.6921.2822.9924.8526.85
Capital Expenditure -35.68-43.34-35.03-44.25-32.24-33.19-55.84-60.35-65.22-70.48-76.16
UFCF 31.4442.6425.8233.6232.1440.2141.8745.2548.9052.8557.11
WACC
PV UFCF 36.3332.1437.2135.8535.8535.8535.8535.85
SUM PV UFCF 193.73

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 8.07
Free cash flow (t + 1) 58.25
Terminal Value 959.70
Present Value of Terminal Value 651.05

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 844.77
Net Debt 205.09
Equity Value 639.68
Shares Outstanding 107.49
Equity Value Per Share 5.95