Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Samse SA (SAMS.PA)
190 €
-0.50 (-0.26%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 1,426.82 | 1,499.12 | 1,511.55 | 1,769.66 | 1,911.77 | 2,059.94 | 2,219.59 | 2,391.62 | 2,576.99 | 2,776.72 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 85.08 | 114.03 | 126.93 | 176.45 | 182.17 | 170.84 | 184.08 | 198.34 | 213.72 | 230.28 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 54.29 | 62.54 | 68.98 | 126.95 | 125.18 | 108.19 | 116.58 | 125.61 | 135.35 | 145.84 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 30.79 | 51.48 | 57.95 | 49.51 | 57 | 62.64 | 67.50 | 72.73 | 78.37 | 84.44 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 61.73 | 70.65 | 141.26 | 145.77 | 184.61 | 149.46 | 161.04 | 173.53 | 186.97 | 201.47 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 30.84 | 32.41 | 32.67 | 38.25 | 41.33 | 44.53 | 47.98 | 51.70 | 55.71 | 60.02 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 271.31 | 273.71 | 278.59 | 350.29 | 380.07 | 392.95 | 423.40 | 456.22 | 491.58 | 529.67 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 192.98 | 196.13 | 217.75 | 243.25 | 267.99 | 283.36 | 305.32 | 328.98 | 354.48 | 381.95 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -35.03 | -51.03 | -32.24 | -33.19 | -46.06 | -50.58 | -54.50 | -58.72 | -63.27 | -68.18 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 190 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.725 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 3.46 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 27.25 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 3.10% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 7.677 |
| Total Debt | 370.21 |
| Total Equity | 657.04 |
| Total Capital | 1,027.25 |
| Debt Weighting | 36.04 |
| Equity Weighting | 63.96 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 1,426.82 | 1,499.12 | 1,511.55 | 1,769.66 | 1,911.77 | 2,059.94 | 2,219.59 | 2,391.62 | 2,576.99 | 2,776.72 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 85.08 | 114.03 | 126.93 | 176.45 | 182.17 | 170.84 | 184.08 | 198.34 | 213.72 | 230.28 |
| EBIT | 54.29 | 62.54 | 68.98 | 126.95 | 125.18 | 108.19 | 116.58 | 125.61 | 135.35 | 145.84 |
| Tax Rate | 29.40% | 29.74% | 30.38% | 23.00% | 27.25% | 27.96% | 27.96% | 27.96% | 27.96% | 27.96% |
| EBIAT | 38.33 | 43.94 | 48.02 | 97.74 | 91.07 | 77.95 | 83.99 | 90.50 | 97.51 | 105.07 |
| Depreciation | 30.79 | 51.48 | 57.95 | 49.51 | 57 | 62.64 | 67.50 | 72.73 | 78.37 | 84.44 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -1.56 | -0.27 | -5.58 | -3.07 | -3.20 | -3.45 | -3.72 | -4.01 | -4.32 |
| Inventories | - | -2.40 | -4.88 | -71.71 | -29.77 | -12.88 | -30.46 | -32.82 | -35.36 | -38.10 |
| Accounts Payable | - | 3.15 | 21.63 | 25.50 | 24.74 | 15.36 | 21.96 | 23.66 | 25.50 | 27.47 |
| Capital Expenditure | -35.03 | -51.03 | -32.24 | -33.19 | -46.06 | -50.58 | -54.50 | -58.72 | -63.27 | -68.18 |
| UFCF | 34.08 | 43.59 | 90.21 | 62.28 | 93.90 | 89.29 | 85.04 | 91.63 | 98.74 | 106.39 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 84.22 | 75.64 | 76.87 | 78.12 | 79.39 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 394.24 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 6.03 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 108.52 |
| Terminal Value | 2,692.70 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 2,009.29 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 2,403.53 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 185.60 |
| Equity Value | 2,217.93 |
| Shares Outstanding | 3.46 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 641.37 |