Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Savencia SA (SAVE.PA)
59.1 €
+0.50 (+0.85%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
Revenue | 4,852.82 | 4,862.62 | 5,007.29 | 5,160.38 | 5,610.42 | 5,820.19 | 6,037.80 | 6,263.54 | 6,497.73 | 6,740.67 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | 278.68 | 228.58 | 301.86 | 330.92 | 349.81 | 338.96 | 351.64 | 364.78 | 378.42 | 392.57 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | 153.97 | 95.84 | 135.42 | 148.48 | 156.49 | 157.32 | 163.20 | 169.30 | 175.63 | 182.20 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | 124.71 | 132.74 | 166.44 | 182.44 | 193.32 | 181.64 | 188.44 | 195.48 | 202.79 | 210.37 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
Total Cash | 376.56 | 484.09 | 477.34 | 600.64 | 572.62 | 571.47 | 592.84 | 615 | 638 | 661.85 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | 494.11 | 517.48 | 565.75 | 612.66 | 676.40 | 652.45 | 676.85 | 702.15 | 728.41 | 755.64 |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 695.89 | 617.36 | 648.44 | 687.08 | 758.07 | 777.72 | 806.80 | 836.96 | 868.25 | 900.72 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -176.38 | -195.94 | -218.94 | -199.30 | -229.42 | -232.67 | -241.37 | -250.39 | -259.75 | -269.46 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 59.1 |
---|---|
Beta | 0.842 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 13.76 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 47.03 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 0.49% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 6.865 |
Total Debt | 1,087.93 |
Total Equity | 812.93 |
Total Capital | 1,900.87 |
Debt Weighting | 57.23 |
Equity Weighting | 42.77 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
Revenue | 4,852.82 | 4,862.62 | 5,007.29 | 5,160.38 | 5,610.42 | 5,820.19 | 6,037.80 | 6,263.54 | 6,497.73 | 6,740.67 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 278.68 | 228.58 | 301.86 | 330.92 | 349.81 | 338.96 | 351.64 | 364.78 | 378.42 | 392.57 |
EBIT | 153.97 | 95.84 | 135.42 | 148.48 | 156.49 | 157.32 | 163.20 | 169.30 | 175.63 | 182.20 |
Tax Rate | 34.79% | 36.05% | 38.98% | 44.55% | 47.03% | 40.28% | 40.28% | 40.28% | 40.28% | 40.28% |
EBIAT | 100.40 | 61.29 | 82.63 | 82.33 | 82.89 | 93.95 | 97.46 | 101.10 | 104.88 | 108.80 |
Depreciation | 124.71 | 132.74 | 166.44 | 182.44 | 193.32 | 181.64 | 188.44 | 195.48 | 202.79 | 210.37 |
Accounts Receivable | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Inventories | - | -23.37 | -48.27 | -46.91 | -63.75 | 23.95 | -24.39 | -25.31 | -26.25 | -27.23 |
Accounts Payable | - | -78.53 | 31.08 | 38.64 | 70.99 | 19.65 | 29.08 | 30.17 | 31.29 | 32.46 |
Capital Expenditure | -176.38 | -195.94 | -218.94 | -199.30 | -229.42 | -232.67 | -241.37 | -250.39 | -259.75 | -269.46 |
UFCF | 48.73 | -103.81 | 12.94 | 57.20 | 54.02 | 86.53 | 49.21 | 51.05 | 52.96 | 54.94 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | 83.83 | 46.20 | 46.44 | 46.67 | 46.91 | |||||
SUM PV UFCF | 270.06 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 3.21 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | 56.04 |
Terminal Value | 4,631.54 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | 3,954.73 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | 4,224.79 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 527.69 |
Equity Value | 3,697.09 |
Shares Outstanding | 13.76 |
Equity Value Per Share | 268.78 |