Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Savencia SA (SAVE.PA)

59.1 €

+0.50 (+0.85%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 268.78 | 59.1 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 4,852.824,862.625,007.295,160.385,610.425,820.196,037.806,263.546,497.736,740.67
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 278.68228.58301.86330.92349.81338.96351.64364.78378.42392.57
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 153.9795.84135.42148.48156.49157.32163.20169.30175.63182.20
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 124.71132.74166.44182.44193.32181.64188.44195.48202.79210.37
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 376.56484.09477.34600.64572.62571.47592.84615638661.85
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables ----------
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 494.11517.48565.75612.66676.40652.45676.85702.15728.41755.64
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 695.89617.36648.44687.08758.07777.72806.80836.96868.25900.72
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -176.38-195.94-218.94-199.30-229.42-232.67-241.37-250.39-259.75-269.46
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 59.1
Beta 0.842
Diluted Shares Outstanding 13.76
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 47.03
After-tax Cost of Debt 0.49%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 6.865
Total Debt 1,087.93
Total Equity 812.93
Total Capital 1,900.87
Debt Weighting 57.23
Equity Weighting 42.77
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 4,852.824,862.625,007.295,160.385,610.425,820.196,037.806,263.546,497.736,740.67
EBITDA 278.68228.58301.86330.92349.81338.96351.64364.78378.42392.57
EBIT 153.9795.84135.42148.48156.49157.32163.20169.30175.63182.20
Tax Rate 34.79%36.05%38.98%44.55%47.03%40.28%40.28%40.28%40.28%40.28%
EBIAT 100.4061.2982.6382.3382.8993.9597.46101.10104.88108.80
Depreciation 124.71132.74166.44182.44193.32181.64188.44195.48202.79210.37
Accounts Receivable ----------
Inventories --23.37-48.27-46.91-63.7523.95-24.39-25.31-26.25-27.23
Accounts Payable --78.5331.0838.6470.9919.6529.0830.1731.2932.46
Capital Expenditure -176.38-195.94-218.94-199.30-229.42-232.67-241.37-250.39-259.75-269.46
UFCF 48.73-103.8112.9457.2054.0286.5349.2151.0552.9654.94
WACC
PV UFCF 83.8346.2046.4446.6746.91
SUM PV UFCF 270.06

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 3.21
Free cash flow (t + 1) 56.04
Terminal Value 4,631.54
Present Value of Terminal Value 3,954.73

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 4,224.79
Net Debt 527.69
Equity Value 3,697.09
Shares Outstanding 13.76
Equity Value Per Share 268.78