Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Sally Beauty Holdings, Inc. (SBH)

$13.145

-0.24 (-1.83%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 43.27 | 13.145 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 3,938.323,932.573,876.413,514.333,8753,868.683,862.383,856.083,849.803,843.53
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 590.92535.42566.13365.54520.64518.88518.03517.19516.34515.50
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 478.60426.59458.47258.76418.44409.99409.32408.66407.99407.33
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 112.32108.83107.66106.78102.20108.88108.71108.53108.35108.18
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 63.7677.2971.50514.15400.96235.26234.88234.50234.12233.73
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 92.2490.49104.5456.4366.5882.5182.3882.2482.1181.97
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 930.86944.34952.91814.50871.35912.19910.71909.22907.74906.26
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 307.75303.24278.69236.33291.63286.02285.55285.08284.62284.16
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -89.67-86.51-107.76-110.86-73.90-95.31-95.15-95-94.84-94.69
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 13.145
Beta 1.324
Diluted Shares Outstanding 114.21
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 26.18
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.55%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 10.066
Total Debt 1,943.11
Total Equity 1,501.32
Total Capital 3,444.42
Debt Weighting 56.41
Equity Weighting 43.59
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 3,938.323,932.573,876.413,514.333,8753,868.683,862.383,856.083,849.803,843.53
EBITDA 590.92535.42566.13365.54520.64518.88518.03517.19516.34515.50
EBIT 478.60426.59458.47258.76418.44409.99409.32408.66407.99407.33
Tax Rate 37.79%21.43%25.00%29.21%26.18%27.92%27.92%27.92%27.92%27.92%
EBIAT 297.76335.17343.85183.18308.88295.52295.04294.56294.08293.60
Depreciation 112.32108.83107.66106.78102.20108.88108.71108.53108.35108.18
Accounts Receivable -1.75-14.0548.11-10.15-15.930.130.130.130.13
Inventories --13.48-8.57138.40-56.85-40.841.491.481.481.48
Accounts Payable --4.51-24.55-42.3655.30-5.62-0.47-0.47-0.46-0.46
Capital Expenditure -89.67-86.51-107.75-110.86-73.90-95.31-95.15-95-94.84-94.69
UFCF 320.42341.25296.59323.26325.48246.71309.75309.24308.74308.23
WACC
PV UFCF 231.89273.66256.80240.98226.14
SUM PV UFCF 1,229.47

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 6.39
Free cash flow (t + 1) 314.40
Terminal Value 7,161.72
Present Value of Terminal Value 5,254.28

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 6,483.75
Net Debt 1,542.15
Equity Value 4,941.60
Shares Outstanding 114.21
Equity Value Per Share 43.27