Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Starbucks Corporation (SBUX)

$99.51

+1.99 (+2.04%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 67.09 | 99.51 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	24,719.50	26,508.60	23,518	29,060.60	32,250.30	34,709.34	37,355.89	40,204.23	43,269.75	46,569.01
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	7,256.50	6,251.10	3,108.20	7,349.80	6,242.40	7,691.62	8,278.10	8,909.29	9,588.61	10,319.73
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	5,950.60	4,801.80	1,605	5,825.70	4,713	5,808.38	6,251.26	6,727.91	7,240.91	7,793.02
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	1,305.90	1,449.30	1,503.20	1,524.10	1,529.40	1,883.24	2,026.83	2,181.38	2,347.70	2,526.71
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Total Cash	8,937.80	2,757.10	4,632.10	6,617.90	3,182.90	6,865.21	7,388.68	7,952.05	8,558.39	9,210.96
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	1,648.50	1,020.30	1,395.40	1,133.10	1,272.60	1,686.61	1,815.21	1,953.62	2,102.58	2,262.90
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	1,400.50	1,529.40	1,551.40	1,603.90	2,176.60	2,103.38	2,263.76	2,436.37	2,622.14	2,822.07
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	1,179.30	1,189.70	997.90	1,211.60	1,441.40	1,536.96	1,654.15	1,780.28	1,916.03	2,062.12
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-1,976.40	-1,806.60	-1,483.60	-1,470	-1,841.30	-2,213.53	-2,382.31	-2,563.95	-2,759.45	-2,969.86
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 99.51
Beta	0.945
Diluted Shares Outstanding	1,158.50
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	22.46
After-tax Cost of Debt	1.57%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	8.150
Total Debt	23,804.80
Total Equity	115,282.34
Total Capital	139,087.14
Debt Weighting	17.12
Equity Weighting	82.88
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	24,719.50	26,508.60	23,518	29,060.60	32,250.30	34,709.34	37,355.89	40,204.23	43,269.75	46,569.01
EBITDA	7,256.50	6,251.10	3,108.20	7,349.80	6,242.40	7,691.62	8,278.10	8,909.29	9,588.61	10,319.73
EBIT	5,950.60	4,801.80	1,605	5,825.70	4,713	5,808.38	6,251.26	6,727.91	7,240.91	7,793.02
Tax Rate	21.83%	19.41%	20.28%	21.61%	22.46%	21.12%	21.12%	21.12%	21.12%	21.12%
EBIAT	4,651.66	3,869.65	1,279.56	4,566.79	3,654.67	4,581.85	4,931.21	5,307.21	5,711.88	6,147.40
Depreciation	1,305.90	1,449.30	1,503.20	1,524.10	1,529.40	1,883.24	2,026.83	2,181.38	2,347.70	2,526.71
Accounts Receivable	-	628.20	-375.10	262.30	-139.50	-414.01	-128.60	-138.41	-148.96	-160.32
Inventories	-	-128.90	-22	-52.50	-572.70	73.22	-160.38	-172.61	-185.77	-199.93
Accounts Payable	-	10.40	-191.80	213.70	229.80	95.56	117.19	126.13	135.74	146.09
Capital Expenditure	-1,976.40	-1,806.60	-1,483.60	-1,470	-1,841.30	-2,213.53	-2,382.31	-2,563.95	-2,759.45	-2,969.86
UFCF	3,981.16	4,022.05	710.26	5,044.39	2,860.37	4,006.33	4,403.95	4,739.74	5,101.14	5,490.10
WACC
PV UFCF						3,743.54	3,845.14	3,866.87	3,888.73	3,910.71
SUM PV UFCF										19,254.99

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	7.02
Free cash flow (t + 1)	5,599.90
Terminal Value	111,551.78
Present Value of Terminal Value	79,460.59

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	98,715.58
Net Debt	20,986.40
Equity Value	77,729.18
Shares Outstanding	1,158.50
Equity Value Per Share	67.09