Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Secoo Holding Limited (SECO)

$1.9432

+0.20 (+11.68%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -24.87 | 1.9432 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 598.47862.011,095.29963.15501.06514.91529.14543.77558.80574.24
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 19.6040.5357.4923.68-85.37-1.39-1.43-1.47-1.51-1.55
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 17.4537.6248.8610.16-95.35-6.42-6.60-6.78-6.97-7.16
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 2.152.928.6313.519.985.035.165.315.455.60
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 119.32180.65113.94102.3924.9868.9170.8172.7774.7876.85
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 8.6831.8368.9081.3382.3837.4038.4439.5040.5941.71
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 190.38274.04428.87526.37479.27260.61267.81275.21282.82290.64
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 50.9579.7791.0555.7065.5246.2847.5648.8750.2251.61
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -3.09-7.16-5.67-2.75-2.22-2.67-2.75-2.82-2.90-2.98
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 1.9,432
Beta 1.025
Diluted Shares Outstanding 6.13
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 23.01
After-tax Cost of Debt 7.62%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 8.344
Total Debt 224.42
Total Equity 11.90
Total Capital 236.33
Debt Weighting 94.96
Equity Weighting 5.04
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 598.47862.011,095.29963.15501.06514.91529.14543.77558.80574.24
EBITDA 19.6040.5357.4923.68-85.37-1.39-1.43-1.47-1.51-1.55
EBIT 17.4537.6248.8610.16-95.35-6.42-6.60-6.78-6.97-7.16
Tax Rate -31.58%22.64%19.70%10.46%23.01%8.85%8.85%8.85%8.85%8.85%
EBIAT 22.9729.1039.239.10-73.41-5.85-6.01-6.18-6.35-6.53
Depreciation 2.152.928.6313.519.985.035.165.315.455.60
Accounts Receivable --23.15-37.07-12.43-1.0544.98-1.03-1.06-1.09-1.12
Inventories --83.66-154.83-97.5047.10218.67-7.20-7.40-7.61-7.82
Accounts Payable -28.8311.27-35.349.82-19.241.281.311.351.39
Capital Expenditure -3.09-7.16-5.67-2.75-2.22-2.67-2.75-2.82-2.90-2.98
UFCF 22.03-53.12-138.43-125.41-9.79240.91-10.55-10.84-11.14-11.45
WACC
PV UFCF 223.77-9.10-8.69-8.29-7.92
SUM PV UFCF 189.76

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 7.66
Free cash flow (t + 1) -11.68
Terminal Value -206.34
Present Value of Terminal Value -142.67

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 47.10
Net Debt 199.45
Equity Value -152.35
Shares Outstanding 6.13
Equity Value Per Share -24.87