Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Semapa - Sociedade de Investimento ... (SEM.LS)

12.88 €

+0.20 (+1.58%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 33.35 | 12.88 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Revenue	2,164.65	2,197.97	2,228.54	1,867.37	2,131.38	2,135.98	2,140.58	2,145.19	2,149.81	2,154.44
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	413.99	431.01	409.13	368.08	450.09	418.32	419.22	420.12	421.03	421.93
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	189.77	215.16	189.27	157.53	229.91	197.67	198.09	198.52	198.95	199.38
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	224.22	215.85	219.86	210.55	220.17	220.65	221.12	221.60	222.08	222.55
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Total Cash	243.19	183.25	259.24	444.76	382.29	311.67	312.34	313.02	313.69	314.37
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	246	294	229	196	281	250.75	251.29	251.83	252.37	252.91
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	280.75	313.89	306.40	236.54	259.38	281.25	281.86	282.46	283.07	283.68
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	228.98	265.91	280.45	243.51	352.42	276.98	277.57	278.17	278.77	279.37
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-140.66	-231.51	-226.59	-121.37	-143.15	-172.65	-173.02	-173.39	-173.77	-174.14
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 12.88
Beta	1.236
Diluted Shares Outstanding	107.49
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	26.06
After-tax Cost of Debt	1.69%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	9.523
Total Debt	1,494.57
Total Equity	1,384.42
Total Capital	2,878.99
Debt Weighting	51.91
Equity Weighting	48.09
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Revenue	2,164.65	2,197.97	2,228.54	1,867.37	2,131.38	2,135.98	2,140.58	2,145.19	2,149.81	2,154.44
EBITDA	413.99	431.01	409.13	368.08	450.09	418.32	419.22	420.12	421.03	421.93
EBIT	189.77	215.16	189.27	157.53	229.91	197.67	198.09	198.52	198.95	199.38
Tax Rate	40.45%	45.86%	33.52%	30.90%	26.06%	35.36%	35.36%	35.36%	35.36%	35.36%
EBIAT	113	116.49	125.83	108.85	170.01	127.78	128.06	128.33	128.61	128.88
Depreciation	224.22	215.85	219.86	210.55	220.17	220.65	221.12	221.60	222.08	222.55
Accounts Receivable	-	-48	65	33	-85	30.25	-0.54	-0.54	-0.54	-0.54
Inventories	-	-33.14	7.50	69.85	-22.84	-21.87	-0.61	-0.61	-0.61	-0.61
Accounts Payable	-	36.93	14.54	-36.95	108.91	-75.45	0.60	0.60	0.60	0.60
Capital Expenditure	-140.66	-231.51	-226.59	-121.37	-143.15	-172.65	-173.02	-173.39	-173.77	-174.14
UFCF	196.56	56.63	206.14	263.95	248.10	108.72	175.61	175.99	176.37	176.75
WACC
PV UFCF						103.10	157.93	150.09	142.64	135.55
SUM PV UFCF										689.30

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	5.45
Free cash flow (t + 1)	180.28
Terminal Value	5,225.51
Present Value of Terminal Value	4,007.71

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	4,697.01
Net Debt	1,112.29
Equity Value	3,584.72
Shares Outstanding	107.49
Equity Value Per Share	33.35