Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Seneca Foods Corporation (SENEA)
$46.66
-1.10 (-2.30%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 1,314.77 | 1,199.58 | 1,335.77 | 1,467.64 | 1,385.28 | 1,409.01 | 1,433.15 | 1,457.70 | 1,482.68 | 1,508.08 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 26.36 | 39.67 | 109.55 | 198.56 | 108.46 | 98.27 | 99.95 | 101.66 | 103.41 | 105.18 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | -5.19 | 8.44 | 78.62 | 166.18 | 71.93 | 64 | 65.09 | 66.21 | 67.34 | 68.50 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 31.55 | 31.24 | 30.93 | 32.37 | 36.52 | 34.27 | 34.86 | 35.46 | 36.06 | 36.68 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 15.10 | 11.48 | 10.70 | 59.84 | 10.90 | 21.90 | 22.27 | 22.66 | 23.04 | 23.44 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 78.80 | 85.34 | 121.76 | 101.52 | 123.97 | 107.34 | 109.18 | 111.05 | 112.95 | 114.88 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 680.83 | 501.68 | 411.63 | 343.14 | 410.33 | 499.98 | 508.55 | 517.26 | 526.12 | 535.13 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 69.62 | 61.02 | 71.19 | 74.09 | 87.60 | 76.32 | 77.63 | 78.96 | 80.31 | 81.69 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -32.66 | -37.73 | -65.69 | -71.43 | -53.37 | -54.29 | -55.22 | -56.17 | -57.13 | -58.11 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 46.66 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.683 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 8.78 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 22.99 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 2.46% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 6.917 |
| Total Debt | 178.12 |
| Total Equity | 409.58 |
| Total Capital | 587.70 |
| Debt Weighting | 30.31 |
| Equity Weighting | 69.69 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 1,314.77 | 1,199.58 | 1,335.77 | 1,467.64 | 1,385.28 | 1,409.01 | 1,433.15 | 1,457.70 | 1,482.68 | 1,508.08 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 26.36 | 39.67 | 109.55 | 198.56 | 108.46 | 98.27 | 99.95 | 101.66 | 103.41 | 105.18 |
| EBIT | -5.19 | 8.44 | 78.62 | 166.18 | 71.93 | 64 | 65.09 | 66.21 | 67.34 | 68.50 |
| Tax Rate | 31.91% | 111.67% | 20.24% | 21.20% | 22.99% | 41.60% | 41.60% | 41.60% | 41.60% | 41.60% |
| EBIAT | -3.54 | -0.98 | 62.71 | 130.96 | 55.40 | 37.38 | 38.02 | 38.67 | 39.33 | 40 |
| Depreciation | 31.55 | 31.24 | 30.93 | 32.37 | 36.52 | 34.27 | 34.86 | 35.46 | 36.06 | 36.68 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -6.55 | -36.42 | 20.25 | -22.46 | 16.64 | -1.84 | -1.87 | -1.90 | -1.94 |
| Inventories | - | 179.14 | 90.05 | 68.49 | -67.19 | -89.65 | -8.57 | -8.71 | -8.86 | -9.01 |
| Accounts Payable | - | -8.59 | 10.17 | 2.89 | 13.51 | -11.28 | 1.31 | 1.33 | 1.35 | 1.38 |
| Capital Expenditure | -32.66 | -37.73 | -65.69 | -71.43 | -53.37 | -54.29 | -55.22 | -56.17 | -57.13 | -58.11 |
| UFCF | -4.65 | 156.53 | 91.76 | 183.53 | -37.58 | -66.94 | 8.55 | 8.70 | 8.85 | 9 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | -63.41 | 7.67 | 7.39 | 7.12 | 6.86 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | -34.35 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 5.57 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 9.18 |
| Terminal Value | 257.15 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 196.10 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 161.75 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 167.22 |
| Equity Value | -5.46 |
| Shares Outstanding | 8.78 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -0.62 |