Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Surgery Partners, Inc. (SGRY)

$25.99

+0.02 (+0.08%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -401.11 | 25.99 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 1,341.221,771.461,831.401,860.102,225.102,540.242,900.013,310.743,779.634,314.94
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 170.1635.20190.10160.40259.40230.32262.95300.19342.70391.24
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 118.23-32.24113.6065.60160.60121.64138.87158.54180.99206.62
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 51.9367.4476.5094.8098.80108.68124.08141.65161.71184.62
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 174.91184.3192.70317.90389.90320.68366.10417.95477.15544.72
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 295.59307.64326.90382.20430.20493.50563.39643.18734.28838.27
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 44.9543.3646.3056.4061.1071.6681.8193.40106.63121.73
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 84.7183.2996.70100.20124.90138.69158.33180.75206.35235.58
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -29.60-39.81-73.60-42.90-57.60-67.91-77.53-88.51-101.05-115.36
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 25.99
Beta 2.906
Diluted Shares Outstanding 48.78
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 187.32
After-tax Cost of Debt -6.57%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 17.520
Total Debt 2,938
Total Equity 1,267.69
Total Capital 4,205.69
Debt Weighting 69.86
Equity Weighting 30.14
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 1,341.221,771.461,831.401,860.102,225.102,540.242,900.013,310.743,779.634,314.94
EBITDA 170.1635.20190.10160.40259.40230.32262.95300.19342.70391.24
EBIT 118.23-32.24113.6065.60160.60121.64138.87158.54180.99206.62
Tax Rate 164.39%-197.41%237.00%-517.55%187.32%-25.25%-25.25%-25.25%-25.25%-25.25%
EBIAT -76.13-95.89-155.63405.11-140.23152.36173.94198.57226.69258.80
Depreciation 51.9367.4476.5094.8098.80108.68124.08141.65161.71184.62
Accounts Receivable --12.06-19.26-55.30-48-63.30-69.89-79.79-91.09-104
Inventories -1.59-2.94-10.10-4.70-10.56-10.15-11.59-13.23-15.10
Accounts Payable --1.4213.413.5024.7013.7919.6422.4225.6029.23
Capital Expenditure -29.60-39.80-73.60-42.90-57.60-67.91-77.53-88.51-101.05-115.36
UFCF -53.80-80.14-161.51395.11-127.03133.05160.08182.75208.63238.18
WACC
PV UFCF 132.14157.89179.02202.97230.13
SUM PV UFCF 902.16

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 0.69
Free cash flow (t + 1) 242.95
Terminal Value -18,545.45
Present Value of Terminal Value -17,918.67

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -17,016.51
Net Debt 2,548.10
Equity Value -19,564.61
Shares Outstanding 48.78
Equity Value Per Share -401.11