Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Sientra, Inc. (SIEN)

$0.64

+0.03 (+4.99%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 119.50 | 0.64 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 36.5468.1383.7071.2480.68102.40129.96164.94209.33265.67
Revenue (%)
EBITDA -59.78-75.88-98.69-76.37-66.39-119.27-151.37-192.11-243.82-309.44
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -62.81-79.20-102.22-80.46-70.75-125.11-158.79-201.53-255.77-324.61
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 3.033.323.524.094.365.847.429.4111.9515.16
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 26.5986.9087.6154.9751.7791.40116147.23186.85237.15
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 6.6122.5327.5523.5033.1032.3841.0952.1566.1884
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 20.9024.0839.6148.6552.9156.0671.1590.30114.60145.45
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 5.8113.189.356.507.4013.2616.8321.3527.1034.40
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -1.86-0.85-4.07-4.04-3.80-4.42-5.61-7.13-9.04-11.48
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 0.64
Beta 1.948
Diluted Shares Outstanding 50.23
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 0.03
After-tax Cost of Debt -12.76%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 12.997
Total Debt 64.67
Total Equity 32.15
Total Capital 96.82
Debt Weighting 66.79
Equity Weighting 33.21
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 36.5468.1383.7071.2480.68102.40129.96164.94209.33265.67
EBITDA -59.78-75.88-98.69-76.37-66.39-119.27-151.37-192.11-243.82-309.44
EBIT -62.81-79.20-102.22-80.46-70.75-125.11-158.79-201.53-255.77-324.61
Tax Rate 0.03%0.00%-0.03%-0.04%0.03%-0.00%-0.00%-0.00%-0.00%-0.00%
EBIAT -62.80-79.20-102.25-80.49-70.73-125.12-158.79-201.53-255.77-324.61
Depreciation 3.033.323.524.094.365.847.429.4111.9515.16
Accounts Receivable --15.92-5.024.05-9.600.73-8.71-11.06-14.04-17.81
Inventories --3.19-15.53-9.04-4.27-3.15-15.09-19.15-24.30-30.85
Accounts Payable -7.37-3.83-2.850.905.853.574.535.757.29
Capital Expenditure -1.86-0.85-4.07-4.04-3.81-4.42-5.61-7.13-9.04-11.48
UFCF -61.63-88.47-127.18-88.27-83.15-120.26-177.22-224.92-285.46-362.29
WACC
PV UFCF -125.54-193.14-255.90-339.05-449.22
SUM PV UFCF -1,362.86

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) -4.21
Free cash flow (t + 1) -369.54
Terminal Value 5,950.71
Present Value of Terminal Value 7,378.50

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 6,015.64
Net Debt 12.90
Equity Value 6,002.74
Shares Outstanding 50.23
Equity Value Per Share 119.50