Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Sirius XM Holdings Inc. (SIRI)

$5.82

+0.01 (+0.17%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 9.02 | 5.82 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 5,425.135,770.697,7948,0408,6969,842.7211,140.6512,609.7414,272.5516,154.64
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 1,908.632,071.372,0551,3862,5242,828.923,201.963,624.194,102.104,643.04
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 1,610.031,770.651,5878241,9412,230.202,524.292,857.163,233.933,660.38
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 298.60300.72468562583598.72677.67767.03868.17982.66
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 69.0254.4310671191131.01148.28167.84189.97215.02
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 241.73232.99670672722664.39752851.17963.411,090.45
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 20.2022.20111022.2325.1628.4832.2336.4841.30
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 794.34735.081,1511,2231,2991,423.201,610.871,823.302,063.732,335.87
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -287.97-355.70-363-350-388-491.04-555.80-629.09-712.04-805.94
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 5.82
Beta 0.951
Diluted Shares Outstanding 4,143
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 13.89
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.87%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 8.452
Total Debt 9,243
Total Equity 24,112.26
Total Capital 33,355.26
Debt Weighting 27.71
Equity Weighting 72.29
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 5,425.135,770.697,7948,0408,6969,842.7211,140.6512,609.7414,272.5516,154.64
EBITDA 1,908.632,071.372,0551,3862,5242,828.923,201.963,624.194,102.104,643.04
EBIT 1,610.031,770.651,5878241,9412,230.202,524.292,857.163,233.933,660.38
Tax Rate 48.75%17.22%23.64%69.53%13.89%34.61%34.61%34.61%34.61%34.61%
EBIAT 825.141,465.671,211.79251.031,671.351,458.361,650.661,868.332,114.712,393.57
Depreciation 298.60300.72468562583598.72677.67767.03868.17982.66
Accounts Receivable -8.74-437.01-2-5057.61-87.61-99.16-112.24-127.04
Inventories --211.201-12.23-2.93-3.32-3.76-4.25-4.81
Accounts Payable --59.26415.927276124.20187.67212.42240.43272.14
Capital Expenditure -287.97-355.70-363-350-388-491.04-555.80-629.09-712.04-805.94
UFCF 835.771,358.171,306.90534.031,880.121,744.911,869.282,115.782,394.782,710.57
WACC
PV UFCF 1,628.011,627.221,718.421,814.721,916.43
SUM PV UFCF 8,704.80

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 7.18
Free cash flow (t + 1) 2,764.78
Terminal Value 53,374.16
Present Value of Terminal Value 37,736.56

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 46,441.36
Net Debt 9,052
Equity Value 37,389.36
Shares Outstanding 4,143
Equity Value Per Share 9.02