Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Stabilis Solutions, Inc. (SLNG)

$7.74

+1.25 (+19.26%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -362.23 | 7.74 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 47.137.5947.0741.55100.34242.31585.141,413.063,412.388,240.53
Revenue (%)
EBITDA -3.26-1.734.883.46-2.75-6.64-16.04-38.73-93.52-225.84
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -4.10-2.24-4.39-5.58-15.30-36.96-89.25-215.54-520.50-1,256.94
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 0.840.529.279.0412.5530.3273.22176.81426.981,031.10
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 2.342.123.9813.712.0637.0589.47216.05521.741,259.95
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 12.501.257.607.1811.2742.50102.64247.88598.591,445.54
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 1.330.070.210.231.182.856.8916.6540.2097.08
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 12.330.264.734.3912.6030.4273.46177.41428.421,034.59
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -0.41-0.26-2.12-0.77-2.66-6.42-15.51-37.44-90.42-218.36
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 7.74
Beta 1.633
Diluted Shares Outstanding 17.50
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -9.89
After-tax Cost of Debt 5.00%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 11.511
Total Debt 0.96
Total Equity 135.48
Total Capital 136.45
Debt Weighting 0.71
Equity Weighting 99.29
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 47.137.5947.0741.55100.34242.31585.141,413.063,412.388,240.53
EBITDA -3.26-1.734.883.46-2.75-6.64-16.04-38.73-93.52-225.84
EBIT -4.10-2.24-4.39-5.58-15.30-36.96-89.25-215.54-520.50-1,256.94
Tax Rate 57.01%-86.64%-5.99%-3.94%-9.89%-9.89%-9.89%-9.89%-9.89%-9.89%
EBIAT -1.76-4.18-4.65-5.80-16.82-40.61-98.08-236.85-571.97-1,381.25
Depreciation 0.840.529.279.0412.5530.3273.22176.81426.981,031.10
Accounts Receivable -11.24-6.340.42-4.09-31.24-60.14-145.23-350.72-846.94
Inventories -1.26-0.14-0.02-0.96-1.67-4.04-9.75-23.55-56.88
Accounts Payable --12.074.47-0.338.2017.8243.04103.94251.01606.17
Capital Expenditure -0.41-0.26-2.12-0.77-2.66-6.42-15.51-37.44-90.42-218.36
UFCF -1.33-3.500.482.54-3.76-31.80-61.50-148.53-358.68-866.16
WACC
PV UFCF -3.76-28.53-49.50-107.23-232.31-503.28
SUM PV UFCF -920.85

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 11.47
Free cash flow (t + 1) -883.48
Terminal Value -9,329.29
Present Value of Terminal Value -5,420.74

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -6,341.59
Net Debt -1.10
Equity Value -6,340.49
Shares Outstanding 17.50
Equity Value Per Share -362.23