Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Sierra Metals Inc. (SMT.TO)

$0.4

-0.01 (-1.23%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 5.54 | 0.4 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 205.12232.37229.04246.89272.01292.29314.09337.50362.67389.71
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 8.9248.7522.0450.6047.7642.6845.8649.2852.9556.90
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -----42.6845.8649.2852.9556.90
EBIT (%)
Depreciation ----------
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 23.8821.8342.9871.4734.9347.7051.2555.0859.1863.59
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 25.8326.2226.6536.6334.1136.7639.5042.4545.6149.01
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 20.8021.9926.0523.4826.6829.4031.5933.9536.4839.20
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 1924.6630.4216.9528.4429.5131.7134.0736.6139.34
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -51.61-49.32-54.62-35.97-71.77-65-69.84-75.05-80.65-86.66
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 0.4
Beta 1.699
Diluted Shares Outstanding 162.64
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 1,013.62
After-tax Cost of Debt -43.21%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 11.399
Total Debt 83.44
Total Equity 65.06
Total Capital 148.49
Debt Weighting 56.19
Equity Weighting 43.81
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 205.12232.37229.04246.89272.01292.29314.09337.50362.67389.71
EBITDA 8.9248.7522.0450.6047.7642.6845.8649.2852.9556.90
EBIT -----42.6845.8649.2852.9556.90
Tax Rate 148.96%63.94%79.81%53.14%1,013.62%271.89%271.89%271.89%271.89%271.89%
EBIAT ------73.36-78.83-84.70-91.02-97.81
Depreciation ----------
Accounts Receivable --0.39-0.42-9.982.52-2.66-2.74-2.95-3.16-3.40
Inventories --1.19-4.072.58-3.20-2.72-2.19-2.36-2.53-2.72
Accounts Payable -5.665.76-13.4711.491.072.202.362.542.73
Capital Expenditure -51.61-49.31-54.62-35.97-71.77-65-69.84-75.05-80.65-86.66
UFCF ------142.66-151.40-162.69-174.82-187.86
WACC
PV UFCF -176.76-232.43-309.45-411.99-548.52
SUM PV UFCF -1,679.14

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) -19.29
Free cash flow (t + 1) -191.61
Terminal Value 900.02
Present Value of Terminal Value 2,627.93

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 948.80
Net Debt 48.51
Equity Value 900.29
Shares Outstanding 162.64
Equity Value Per Share 5.54