Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Sierra Metals Inc. (SMT.TO)

$0.44

+0.01 (+3.53%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 5.63 | 0.44 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 205.12232.37229.04246.89272.01292.29314.09337.50362.67389.71
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 8.9248.7522.0450.6047.7642.6845.8649.2852.9556.90
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -----42.6845.8649.2852.9556.90
EBIT (%)
Depreciation ----------
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 23.8821.8342.9871.4734.9347.7051.2555.0859.1863.59
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 28.1026.1533.3639.1341.9841.3944.4747.7951.3555.18
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 20.8021.9926.0523.4826.6829.4031.5933.9536.4839.20
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 1924.6630.4216.9528.4429.5131.7134.0736.6139.34
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -51.61-49.32-54.62-35.97-71.77-65-69.84-75.05-80.65-86.66
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 0.44
Beta 1.183
Diluted Shares Outstanding 162.64
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 1,013.62
After-tax Cost of Debt -43.21%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 9.118
Total Debt 83.44
Total Equity 71.56
Total Capital 155
Debt Weighting 53.83
Equity Weighting 46.17
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 205.12232.37229.04246.89272.01292.29314.09337.50362.67389.71
EBITDA 8.9248.7522.0450.6047.7642.6845.8649.2852.9556.90
EBIT -----42.6845.8649.2852.9556.90
Tax Rate 148.96%63.94%79.81%53.14%1,013.62%271.89%271.89%271.89%271.89%271.89%
EBIAT ------73.36-78.83-84.70-91.02-97.81
Depreciation ----------
Accounts Receivable -1.95-7.21-5.77-2.850.59-3.09-3.32-3.56-3.83
Inventories --1.19-4.072.58-3.20-2.72-2.19-2.36-2.53-2.72
Accounts Payable -5.665.76-13.4711.491.072.202.362.542.73
Capital Expenditure -51.61-49.31-54.62-35.97-71.77-65-69.84-75.05-80.65-86.66
UFCF ------139.42-151.75-163.06-175.22-188.28
WACC
PV UFCF -172.22-231.58-307.40-408.05-541.66
SUM PV UFCF -1,660.92

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) -19.05
Free cash flow (t + 1) -192.05
Terminal Value 912.35
Present Value of Terminal Value 2,624.69

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 963.77
Net Debt 48.51
Equity Value 915.26
Shares Outstanding 162.64
Equity Value Per Share 5.63