Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Sierra Metals Inc. (SMT.TO)
$0.44
+0.01 (+3.53%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
Revenue | 205.12 | 232.37 | 229.04 | 246.89 | 272.01 | 292.29 | 314.09 | 337.50 | 362.67 | 389.71 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | 8.92 | 48.75 | 22.04 | 50.60 | 47.76 | 42.68 | 45.86 | 49.28 | 52.95 | 56.90 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | - | - | - | - | - | 42.68 | 45.86 | 49.28 | 52.95 | 56.90 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
Total Cash | 23.88 | 21.83 | 42.98 | 71.47 | 34.93 | 47.70 | 51.25 | 55.08 | 59.18 | 63.59 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | 28.10 | 26.15 | 33.36 | 39.13 | 41.98 | 41.39 | 44.47 | 47.79 | 51.35 | 55.18 |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | 20.80 | 21.99 | 26.05 | 23.48 | 26.68 | 29.40 | 31.59 | 33.95 | 36.48 | 39.20 |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 19 | 24.66 | 30.42 | 16.95 | 28.44 | 29.51 | 31.71 | 34.07 | 36.61 | 39.34 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -51.61 | -49.32 | -54.62 | -35.97 | -71.77 | -65 | -69.84 | -75.05 | -80.65 | -86.66 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 0.44 |
---|---|
Beta | 1.183 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 162.64 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 1,013.62 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | -43.21% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 9.118 |
Total Debt | 83.44 |
Total Equity | 71.56 |
Total Capital | 155 |
Debt Weighting | 53.83 |
Equity Weighting | 46.17 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
Revenue | 205.12 | 232.37 | 229.04 | 246.89 | 272.01 | 292.29 | 314.09 | 337.50 | 362.67 | 389.71 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 8.92 | 48.75 | 22.04 | 50.60 | 47.76 | 42.68 | 45.86 | 49.28 | 52.95 | 56.90 |
EBIT | - | - | - | - | - | 42.68 | 45.86 | 49.28 | 52.95 | 56.90 |
Tax Rate | 148.96% | 63.94% | 79.81% | 53.14% | 1,013.62% | 271.89% | 271.89% | 271.89% | 271.89% | 271.89% |
EBIAT | - | - | - | - | - | -73.36 | -78.83 | -84.70 | -91.02 | -97.81 |
Depreciation | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Accounts Receivable | - | 1.95 | -7.21 | -5.77 | -2.85 | 0.59 | -3.09 | -3.32 | -3.56 | -3.83 |
Inventories | - | -1.19 | -4.07 | 2.58 | -3.20 | -2.72 | -2.19 | -2.36 | -2.53 | -2.72 |
Accounts Payable | - | 5.66 | 5.76 | -13.47 | 11.49 | 1.07 | 2.20 | 2.36 | 2.54 | 2.73 |
Capital Expenditure | -51.61 | -49.31 | -54.62 | -35.97 | -71.77 | -65 | -69.84 | -75.05 | -80.65 | -86.66 |
UFCF | - | - | - | - | - | -139.42 | -151.75 | -163.06 | -175.22 | -188.28 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | -172.22 | -231.58 | -307.40 | -408.05 | -541.66 | |||||
SUM PV UFCF | -1,660.92 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | -19.05 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | -192.05 |
Terminal Value | 912.35 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | 2,624.69 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | 963.77 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 48.51 |
Equity Value | 915.26 |
Shares Outstanding | 162.64 |
Equity Value Per Share | 5.63 |