Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Sierra Metals Inc. (SMT.TO)
$0.44
+0.01 (+3.53%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 205.12 | 232.37 | 229.04 | 246.89 | 272.01 | 292.29 | 314.09 | 337.50 | 362.67 | 389.71 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 8.92 | 48.75 | 22.04 | 50.60 | 47.76 | 42.68 | 45.86 | 49.28 | 52.95 | 56.90 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | - | - | - | - | - | 42.68 | 45.86 | 49.28 | 52.95 | 56.90 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Total Cash | 23.88 | 21.83 | 42.98 | 71.47 | 34.93 | 47.70 | 51.25 | 55.08 | 59.18 | 63.59 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 28.10 | 26.15 | 33.36 | 39.13 | 41.98 | 41.39 | 44.47 | 47.79 | 51.35 | 55.18 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 20.80 | 21.99 | 26.05 | 23.48 | 26.68 | 29.40 | 31.59 | 33.95 | 36.48 | 39.20 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 19 | 24.66 | 30.42 | 16.95 | 28.44 | 29.51 | 31.71 | 34.07 | 36.61 | 39.34 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -51.61 | -49.32 | -54.62 | -35.97 | -71.77 | -65 | -69.84 | -75.05 | -80.65 | -86.66 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 0.44 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.183 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 162.64 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 1,013.62 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | -43.21% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 9.118 |
| Total Debt | 83.44 |
| Total Equity | 71.56 |
| Total Capital | 155 |
| Debt Weighting | 53.83 |
| Equity Weighting | 46.17 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 205.12 | 232.37 | 229.04 | 246.89 | 272.01 | 292.29 | 314.09 | 337.50 | 362.67 | 389.71 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 8.92 | 48.75 | 22.04 | 50.60 | 47.76 | 42.68 | 45.86 | 49.28 | 52.95 | 56.90 |
| EBIT | - | - | - | - | - | 42.68 | 45.86 | 49.28 | 52.95 | 56.90 |
| Tax Rate | 148.96% | 63.94% | 79.81% | 53.14% | 1,013.62% | 271.89% | 271.89% | 271.89% | 271.89% | 271.89% |
| EBIAT | - | - | - | - | - | -73.36 | -78.83 | -84.70 | -91.02 | -97.81 |
| Depreciation | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Accounts Receivable | - | 1.95 | -7.21 | -5.77 | -2.85 | 0.59 | -3.09 | -3.32 | -3.56 | -3.83 |
| Inventories | - | -1.19 | -4.07 | 2.58 | -3.20 | -2.72 | -2.19 | -2.36 | -2.53 | -2.72 |
| Accounts Payable | - | 5.66 | 5.76 | -13.47 | 11.49 | 1.07 | 2.20 | 2.36 | 2.54 | 2.73 |
| Capital Expenditure | -51.61 | -49.31 | -54.62 | -35.97 | -71.77 | -65 | -69.84 | -75.05 | -80.65 | -86.66 |
| UFCF | - | - | - | - | - | -139.42 | -151.75 | -163.06 | -175.22 | -188.28 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | -172.22 | -231.58 | -307.40 | -408.05 | -541.66 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | -1,660.92 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | -19.05 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -192.05 |
| Terminal Value | 912.35 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 2,624.69 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 963.77 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 48.51 |
| Equity Value | 915.26 |
| Shares Outstanding | 162.64 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 5.63 |