Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Sonos, Inc. (SONO)

$14.37

+0.45 (+3.23%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 7.32 | 14.37 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 992.531,137.011,260.821,326.331,716.741,974.592,271.162,612.283,004.633,455.91
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 22.7729.3237.8417.83191.4080.4392.51106.41122.39140.77
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -12.25-10.041.42-18.60157.5222.7826.2130.1434.6739.88
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 35.0139.3636.4236.4333.8857.6566.3176.2787.72100.90
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 130.60220.93338.64407.10640.10503.23578.81665.75765.74880.75
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 47.3673.21102.7454.93100.78116133.42153.46176.51203.02
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 113.86193.19219.78180.83185.13277.68319.38367.35422.52485.98
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 114.49195.16251.94250.33215316.25363.75418.38481.22553.49
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -33.55-35.75-23.22-33.03-45.53-53.35-61.36-70.58-81.18-93.37
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 14.37
Beta 1.993
Diluted Shares Outstanding 140.31
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -1.06
After-tax Cost of Debt 1.32%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 13.372
Total Debt 44.68
Total Equity 2,016.24
Total Capital 2,060.93
Debt Weighting 2.17
Equity Weighting 97.83
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 992.531,137.011,260.821,326.331,716.741,974.592,271.162,612.283,004.633,455.91
EBITDA 22.7729.3237.8417.83191.4080.4392.51106.41122.39140.77
EBIT -12.25-10.041.42-18.60157.5222.7826.2130.1434.6739.88
Tax Rate 13.88%-7.26%-342.94%-0.16%-1.06%-67.51%-67.51%-67.51%-67.51%-67.51%
EBIAT -10.55-10.776.30-18.63159.1938.1743.9050.4958.0766.80
Depreciation 35.0139.3636.4236.4333.8857.6566.3176.2787.72100.90
Accounts Receivable --25.85-29.5347.81-45.84-15.22-17.42-20.04-23.05-26.51
Inventories --79.34-26.5938.95-4.30-92.55-41.71-47.97-55.17-63.46
Accounts Payable -80.6656.78-1.61-35.33101.2547.5054.6362.8472.28
Capital Expenditure -33.55-35.75-23.22-33.03-45.53-53.35-61.36-70.58-81.18-93.37
UFCF -9.09-31.6820.1669.9162.0735.9537.2142.8049.2356.62
WACC
PV UFCF 31.7929.0929.5830.0830.58
SUM PV UFCF 151.11

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 13.11
Free cash flow (t + 1) 57.76
Terminal Value 519.86
Present Value of Terminal Value 280.79

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 431.90
Net Debt -595.42
Equity Value 1,027.32
Shares Outstanding 140.31
Equity Value Per Share 7.32