Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

South West Pinnacle Exploration Lim... (SOUTHWEST.NS)

114.6 ₹

-0.80 (-0.69%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 89.89 | 114.6 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	786.48	853.17	855.94	1,035.08	1,178.63	1,307.11	1,449.59	1,607.60	1,782.84	1,977.18
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	274.38	232.13	171.13	265.22	274.71	342.51	379.85	421.25	467.17	518.09
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	200.38	170.94	102.47	187.23	199.96	241.92	268.29	297.53	329.96	365.93
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	74	61.19	68.66	77.99	74.75	100.60	111.56	123.72	137.21	152.16
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Total Cash	5.78	74.48	6.78	78.17	95.47	67.73	75.11	83.30	92.38	102.45
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	246.18	275.40	303.91	324.27	350.85	418.76	464.40	515.02	571.16	633.42
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	71.52	115.87	216.41	241.59	196.48	229.97	255.04	282.84	313.67	347.86
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-52.90	-24.79	-288.89	-72.13	-86.21	-150.75	-167.19	-185.41	-205.62	-228.04
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 114.6
Beta	0.620
Diluted Shares Outstanding	27.90
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	27.50
After-tax Cost of Debt	7.01%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	6.445
Total Debt	510.22
Total Equity	3,197.62
Total Capital	3,707.84
Debt Weighting	13.76
Equity Weighting	86.24
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	786.48	853.17	855.94	1,035.08	1,178.63	1,307.11	1,449.59	1,607.60	1,782.84	1,977.18
EBITDA	274.38	232.13	171.13	265.22	274.71	342.51	379.85	421.25	467.17	518.09
EBIT	200.38	170.94	102.47	187.23	199.96	241.92	268.29	297.53	329.96	365.93
Tax Rate	34.73%	24.86%	40.21%	23.66%	27.50%	30.19%	30.19%	30.19%	30.19%	30.19%
EBIAT	130.78	128.44	61.26	142.94	144.97	168.87	187.28	207.70	230.34	255.44
Depreciation	74	61.19	68.66	77.99	74.75	100.60	111.56	123.72	137.21	152.16
Accounts Receivable	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Inventories	-	-29.22	-28.51	-20.36	-26.58	-67.90	-45.65	-50.62	-56.14	-62.26
Accounts Payable	-	44.35	100.54	25.19	-45.11	33.49	25.07	27.80	30.83	34.19
Capital Expenditure	-52.90	-24.79	-288.89	-72.13	-86.21	-150.75	-167.19	-185.41	-205.62	-228.04
UFCF	151.89	179.96	-86.94	153.62	61.82	84.30	111.08	123.19	136.61	151.50
WACC
PV UFCF						79.14	97.90	101.92	106.11	110.48
SUM PV UFCF										495.55

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	6.52
Free cash flow (t + 1)	154.53
Terminal Value	3,418.90
Present Value of Terminal Value	2,493.05

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	2,988.60
Net Debt	480.54
Equity Value	2,508.06
Shares Outstanding	27.90
Equity Value Per Share	89.89