Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

South West Pinnacle Exploration Lim... (SOUTHWEST.NS)

114.6 ₹

-0.80 (-0.69%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 89.89 | 114.6 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 786.48853.17855.941,035.081,178.631,307.111,449.591,607.601,782.841,977.18
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 274.38232.13171.13265.22274.71342.51379.85421.25467.17518.09
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 200.38170.94102.47187.23199.96241.92268.29297.53329.96365.93
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 7461.1968.6677.9974.75100.60111.56123.72137.21152.16
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 5.7874.486.7878.1795.4767.7375.1183.3092.38102.45
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables ----------
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 246.18275.40303.91324.27350.85418.76464.40515.02571.16633.42
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 71.52115.87216.41241.59196.48229.97255.04282.84313.67347.86
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -52.90-24.79-288.89-72.13-86.21-150.75-167.19-185.41-205.62-228.04
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 114.6
Beta 0.620
Diluted Shares Outstanding 27.90
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 27.50
After-tax Cost of Debt 7.01%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 6.445
Total Debt 510.22
Total Equity 3,197.62
Total Capital 3,707.84
Debt Weighting 13.76
Equity Weighting 86.24
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 786.48853.17855.941,035.081,178.631,307.111,449.591,607.601,782.841,977.18
EBITDA 274.38232.13171.13265.22274.71342.51379.85421.25467.17518.09
EBIT 200.38170.94102.47187.23199.96241.92268.29297.53329.96365.93
Tax Rate 34.73%24.86%40.21%23.66%27.50%30.19%30.19%30.19%30.19%30.19%
EBIAT 130.78128.4461.26142.94144.97168.87187.28207.70230.34255.44
Depreciation 7461.1968.6677.9974.75100.60111.56123.72137.21152.16
Accounts Receivable ----------
Inventories --29.22-28.51-20.36-26.58-67.90-45.65-50.62-56.14-62.26
Accounts Payable -44.35100.5425.19-45.1133.4925.0727.8030.8334.19
Capital Expenditure -52.90-24.79-288.89-72.13-86.21-150.75-167.19-185.41-205.62-228.04
UFCF 151.89179.96-86.94153.6261.8284.30111.08123.19136.61151.50
WACC
PV UFCF 79.1497.90101.92106.11110.48
SUM PV UFCF 495.55

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 6.52
Free cash flow (t + 1) 154.53
Terminal Value 3,418.90
Present Value of Terminal Value 2,493.05

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 2,988.60
Net Debt 480.54
Equity Value 2,508.06
Shares Outstanding 27.90
Equity Value Per Share 89.89