Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

SPIE SA (SPIE.PA)

21.58 €

+0.52 (+2.47%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 27.91 | 21.58 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 6,127.996,693.696,953.366,655.456,994.187,237.507,489.297,749.848,019.458,298.44
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 369.61264.67501.32438.58573.30462.94479.04495.71512.95530.80
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 240.95183.75322.38192.46332.02274.33283.88293.75303.97314.55
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 128.6680.92178.94246.12241.28188.60195.16201.95208.98216.25
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 551.22791.46879.321,197.121,245.721,002.581,037.461,073.551,110.901,149.55
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables ----------
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 37.2843.1541.1935.4541.6643.0444.5446.0947.6949.35
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 584.20675.21698.62485.53534.01645.56668.02691.26715.31740.19
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -44.82-53.06-69.93-65.74-66.91-64.76-67.02-69.35-71.76-74.26
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 21.58
Beta 1.622
Diluted Shares Outstanding 161.42
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 37.45
After-tax Cost of Debt 1.56%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 11.458
Total Debt 2,521.49
Total Equity 3,483.41
Total Capital 6,004.90
Debt Weighting 41.99
Equity Weighting 58.01
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 6,127.996,693.696,953.366,655.456,994.187,237.507,489.297,749.848,019.458,298.44
EBITDA 369.61264.67501.32438.58573.30462.94479.04495.71512.95530.80
EBIT 240.95183.75322.38192.46332.02274.33283.88293.75303.97314.55
Tax Rate 41.21%51.23%43.51%57.44%37.45%46.17%46.17%46.17%46.17%46.17%
EBIAT 141.6689.62182.1281.90207.68147.68152.82158.14163.64169.33
Depreciation 128.6680.92178.94246.12241.28188.60195.16201.95208.98216.25
Accounts Receivable ----------
Inventories --5.871.965.74-6.22-1.38-1.50-1.55-1.60-1.66
Accounts Payable -91.0123.41-213.0948.48111.5422.4623.2424.0524.89
Capital Expenditure -44.82-53.06-69.93-65.74-66.91-64.76-67.02-69.35-71.76-74.26
UFCF 225.50202.62316.5054.94424.32381.69301.93312.44323.31334.55
WACC
PV UFCF 355.72262.25252.91243.90235.22
SUM PV UFCF 1,349.99

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 7.30
Free cash flow (t + 1) 341.24
Terminal Value 6,438.58
Present Value of Terminal Value 4,526.80

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 5,876.79
Net Debt 1,371.70
Equity Value 4,505.09
Shares Outstanding 161.42
Equity Value Per Share 27.91