Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Sportsman's Warehouse Holdings, Inc... (SPWH)

$8.43

+0.23 (+2.80%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -14.11 | 8.43 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 809.67849.13886.401,451.771,506.071,795.182,139.792,550.563,040.173,623.78
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 64.2762.2752.78146.79171.84153.48182.94218.06259.92309.82
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 46.5744.0233.46124.97145.62118.44141.17168.27200.57239.08
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 17.7118.2519.3221.8326.2335.0441.7749.7959.3570.74
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 1.771.551.6965.5257.0231.9238.0545.3554.0564.43
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 0.320.251.720.581.941.551.842.202.623.12
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 270.59276.60275.50243.43386.56500.90597.05711.66848.271,011.11
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 36.7924.9538.1677.4458.9275.5290.01107.29127.89152.44
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -41.17-18.20-30.37-19.75-53.45-55.88-66.61-79.39-94.63-112.80
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 8.43
Beta 0.926
Diluted Shares Outstanding 44.54
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 24.80
After-tax Cost of Debt 0.30%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 8.070
Total Debt 343.20
Total Equity 375.50
Total Capital 718.70
Debt Weighting 47.75
Equity Weighting 52.25
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 809.67849.13886.401,451.771,506.071,795.182,139.792,550.563,040.173,623.78
EBITDA 64.2762.2752.78146.79171.84153.48182.94218.06259.92309.82
EBIT 46.5744.0233.46124.97145.62118.44141.17168.27200.57239.08
Tax Rate 45.96%22.92%20.63%24.77%24.80%27.81%27.81%27.81%27.81%27.81%
EBIAT 25.1733.9326.5694.02109.5185.49101.91121.47144.79172.58
Depreciation 17.7118.2519.3221.8326.2335.0441.7749.7959.3570.74
Accounts Receivable -0.07-1.471.14-1.360.39-0.30-0.35-0.42-0.50
Inventories --6.011.1032.07-143.13-114.34-96.15-114.61-136.61-162.84
Accounts Payable --11.8413.2039.28-18.5216.6014.5017.2820.6024.55
Capital Expenditure -41.17-18.20-30.37-19.75-53.45-55.88-66.61-79.39-94.63-112.80
UFCF 1.7016.2128.34168.58-80.73-32.69-4.88-5.82-6.94-8.27
WACC
PV UFCF -31.32-4.49-5.12-5.85-6.68
SUM PV UFCF -53.46

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 4.36
Free cash flow (t + 1) -8.44
Terminal Value -357.53
Present Value of Terminal Value -288.83

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -342.29
Net Debt 286.19
Equity Value -628.48
Shares Outstanding 44.54
Equity Value Per Share -14.11