Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Spire Inc. (SR)

$67.94

-1.49 (-2.15%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -337.41 | 67.94 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 1,740.701,9651,952.401,855.402,235.502,390.662,556.582,734.022,923.783,126.71
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 482.40454.50505.20403.80659.90612.01654.49699.92748.49800.44
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 328.30286.10323.50206.50446.80387.79414.71443.49474.27507.19
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 154.10168.40181.70197.30213.10224.22239.78256.43274.22293.26
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 7.404.405.804.104.306.506.957.437.958.50
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 276.70305.50293.90263.30605.50419.67448.80479.95513.26548.88
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 225.80210.30196.60191.50305275.92295.07315.55337.45360.87
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 257.10290.10301.50243.30409.90365.41390.77417.89446.90477.92
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -438.10-499.40-823.30-638.40-624.80-741.62-793.09-848.14-907-969.96
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 67.94
Beta 0.324
Diluted Shares Outstanding 51.70
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 20.14
After-tax Cost of Debt 2.32%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 5.224
Total Debt 3,666.90
Total Equity 3,512.50
Total Capital 7,179.40
Debt Weighting 51.08
Equity Weighting 48.92
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 1,740.701,9651,952.401,855.402,235.502,390.662,556.582,734.022,923.783,126.71
EBITDA 482.40454.50505.20403.80659.90612.01654.49699.92748.49800.44
EBIT 328.30286.10323.50206.50446.80387.79414.71443.49474.27507.19
Tax Rate 32.44%-14.12%15.75%12.28%20.14%13.30%13.30%13.30%13.30%13.30%
EBIAT 221.79326.49272.56181.15356.84336.23359.57384.52411.21439.75
Depreciation 154.10168.40181.70197.30213.10224.22239.78256.43274.22293.26
Accounts Receivable --28.8011.6030.60-342.20185.83-29.13-31.15-33.31-35.62
Inventories -15.5013.705.10-113.5029.08-19.15-20.48-21.90-23.42
Accounts Payable -3311.40-58.20166.60-44.4925.3627.122931.02
Capital Expenditure -438.10-499.40-823.30-638.40-624.80-741.62-793.09-848.14-907-969.96
UFCF -62.2115.19-332.34-282.45-343.96-10.75-216.66-231.70-247.78-264.97
WACC
PV UFCF -10.36-201.32-207.53-213.93-220.53
SUM PV UFCF -853.68

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 3.74
Free cash flow (t + 1) -270.27
Terminal Value -15,533.01
Present Value of Terminal Value -12,927.79

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -13,781.47
Net Debt 3,662.60
Equity Value -17,444.07
Shares Outstanding 51.70
Equity Value Per Share -337.41