Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Stoneridge, Inc. (SRI)

$17.58

-0.12 (-0.68%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 15.97 | 17.58 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 824.44866.20834.29648.01770.46766.51762.58758.68754.79750.92
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 86.7599.29104.2028.6445.4568.6768.3267.9767.6267.27
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 58.5069.7872.72-4.6017.6239.0138.8138.6138.4138.21
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 28.2529.5231.4833.2427.8229.6629.5129.3629.2129.06
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 6681.0969.4073.9285.5573.8973.5173.1372.7672.38
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 142.44139.08138.56136.74150.39138.84138.12137.42136.71136.01
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 73.4779.2893.4590.55138.1193.7793.2992.8192.3391.86
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 79.3987.8980.7086.1097.6884.9584.5284.0883.6583.22
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -32.17-29.03-39.47-32.46-27.03-31.43-31.27-31.11-30.95-30.79
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 17.58
Beta 1.267
Diluted Shares Outstanding 27.02
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 72.61
After-tax Cost of Debt 7.05%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 9.677
Total Debt 20.16
Total Equity 475.10
Total Capital 495.26
Debt Weighting 4.07
Equity Weighting 95.93
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 824.44866.20834.29648.01770.46766.51762.58758.68754.79750.92
EBITDA 86.7599.29104.2028.6445.4568.6768.3267.9767.6267.27
EBIT 58.5069.7872.72-4.6017.6239.0138.8138.6138.4138.21
Tax Rate 14.08%17.23%11.85%25.87%72.61%28.33%28.33%28.33%28.33%28.33%
EBIAT 50.2657.7564.10-3.414.8327.9627.8127.6727.5327.39
Depreciation 28.2529.5231.4833.2427.8229.6629.5129.3629.2129.06
Accounts Receivable -3.360.511.82-13.6411.550.710.710.700.70
Inventories --5.81-14.172.90-47.5744.350.480.480.480.47
Accounts Payable -8.51-7.195.4011.58-12.73-0.44-0.43-0.43-0.43
Capital Expenditure -32.17-29.03-39.47-32.46-27.03-31.43-31.27-31.11-30.95-30.79
UFCF 46.3464.3135.277.48-44.0169.3626.8126.6726.5426.40
WACC
PV UFCF 63.3022.3320.2818.4116.72
SUM PV UFCF 141.05

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 9.57
Free cash flow (t + 1) 26.93
Terminal Value 355.75
Present Value of Terminal Value 225.26

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 366.30
Net Debt -65.39
Equity Value 431.69
Shares Outstanding 27.02
Equity Value Per Share 15.97