Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Sarepta Therapeutics, Inc. (SRPT)
$84.44
+3.16 (+3.89%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 301.03 | 380.83 | 540.10 | 701.89 | 933.01 | 1,239.07 | 1,645.53 | 2,185.32 | 2,902.17 | 3,854.18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | -342.76 | -469.42 | -529.28 | -412.12 | -473.53 | -1,101.76 | -1,463.17 | -1,943.14 | -2,580.55 | -3,427.06 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | -355.01 | -499.97 | -556.19 | -450.14 | -515.40 | -1,168.60 | -1,551.94 | -2,061.03 | -2,737.12 | -3,634.99 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 12.25 | 30.55 | 26.91 | 38.02 | 41.86 | 66.85 | 88.78 | 117.90 | 156.57 | 207.93 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 1,173.91 | 1,124.75 | 1,938.57 | 2,115.87 | 1,989.37 | 3,863.18 | 5,130.44 | 6,813.39 | 9,048.41 | 12,016.58 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 49.04 | 93.94 | 138.58 | 171.64 | 259.70 | 294.66 | 391.32 | 519.69 | 690.17 | 916.56 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 125.45 | 171.38 | 231.96 | 186.21 | 203.97 | 441.14 | 585.85 | 778.02 | 1,033.24 | 1,372.18 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 33.83 | 68.09 | 111.09 | 76.74 | 95.87 | 175.69 | 233.32 | 309.86 | 411.50 | 546.49 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -64.35 | -62.71 | -82.20 | -38.49 | -30.82 | -153.27 | -203.55 | -270.32 | -358.99 | -476.76 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 84.44 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.955 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 81.26 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | -1.96 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 4.16% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 8.664 |
| Total Debt | 1,617.36 |
| Total Equity | 6,861.76 |
| Total Capital | 8,479.12 |
| Debt Weighting | 19.07 |
| Equity Weighting | 80.93 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 301.03 | 380.83 | 540.10 | 701.89 | 933.01 | 1,239.07 | 1,645.53 | 2,185.32 | 2,902.17 | 3,854.18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | -342.76 | -469.42 | -529.28 | -412.12 | -473.53 | -1,101.76 | -1,463.17 | -1,943.14 | -2,580.55 | -3,427.06 |
| EBIT | -355.01 | -499.97 | -556.19 | -450.14 | -515.40 | -1,168.60 | -1,551.94 | -2,061.03 | -2,737.12 | -3,634.99 |
| Tax Rate | 0.19% | -0.17% | -0.19% | 0.04% | -1.96% | -0.42% | -0.42% | -0.42% | -0.42% | -0.42% |
| EBIAT | -354.33 | -500.81 | -557.26 | -449.95 | -525.50 | -1,173.49 | -1,558.43 | -2,069.64 | -2,748.56 | -3,650.17 |
| Depreciation | 12.25 | 30.55 | 26.91 | 38.02 | 41.86 | 66.85 | 88.78 | 117.90 | 156.57 | 207.93 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -44.89 | -44.65 | -33.05 | -88.06 | -34.97 | -96.66 | -128.37 | -170.48 | -226.40 |
| Inventories | - | -45.93 | -60.58 | 45.75 | -17.76 | -237.17 | -144.71 | -192.18 | -255.22 | -338.94 |
| Accounts Payable | - | 34.26 | 43 | -34.35 | 19.13 | 79.81 | 57.63 | 76.54 | 101.64 | 134.99 |
| Capital Expenditure | -64.34 | -62.71 | -82.20 | -38.49 | -30.82 | -153.27 | -203.55 | -270.32 | -358.99 | -476.76 |
| UFCF | -406.43 | -589.54 | -674.78 | -472.08 | -601.14 | -1,452.23 | -1,856.94 | -2,466.08 | -3,275.03 | -4,349.35 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | -1,347.16 | -1,597.94 | -1,968.57 | -2,425.16 | -2,987.65 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | -10,326.47 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 7.80 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -4,436.33 |
| Terminal Value | -76,488.52 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -52,541.50 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -62,867.97 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 650.58 |
| Equity Value | -63,518.55 |
| Shares Outstanding | 81.26 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -781.65 |