Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

STAAR Surgical Company (STAA)

$68.43

-3.47 (-4.83%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: -17.86 | 68.43 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Projected	2020 Projected	2021 Projected	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Revenue	90.61	123.95	169.57	231.96	317.32	434.09	593.83	812.34	1,111.27	1,520.19
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	0.95	9.27	7.22	9.88	13.52	18.49	25.30	34.61	47.35	64.77
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	-2.41	6.80	2.40	3.28	4.49	6.15	8.41	11.50	15.73	21.52
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	3.35	2.46	4.82	6.60	9.03	12.35	16.89	23.11	31.61	43.24
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Projected	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Total Cash	18.52	103.88	88.38	120.90	165.39	226.25	309.51	423.40	579.20	792.34
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	19.49	27.71	37.18	50.87	69.58	95.19	130.22	178.14	243.69	333.36
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	13.31	16.70	23.88	32.67	44.69	61.13	83.63	114.40	156.49	214.08
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	6.03	6.52	10.11	13.83	18.91	25.87	35.40	48.42	66.24	90.61
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-1.05	-2.25	-2.51	-3.44	-4.71	-6.44	-8.81	-12.05	-16.48	-22.54
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 68.43
Beta	1.066
Diluted Shares Outstanding	49.46
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	21.73
After-tax Cost of Debt	-0.09%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	8.584
Total Debt	32.06
Total Equity	3,384.27
Total Capital	3,416.34
Debt Weighting	0.94
Equity Weighting	99.06
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Projected	2020 Projected	2021 Projected	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Revenue	90.61	123.95	169.57	231.96	317.32	434.09	593.83	812.34	1,111.27	1,520.19
EBITDA	0.95	9.27	7.22	9.88	13.52	18.49	25.30	34.61	47.35	64.77
EBIT	-2.41	6.80	2.40	3.28	4.49	6.15	8.41	11.50	15.73	21.52
Tax Rate	6.84%	25.17%	11.47%	-7.85%	21.73%	11.47%	11.47%	11.47%	11.47%	11.47%
EBIAT	-2.24	5.09	2.13	3.54	3.52	5.44	7.44	10.18	13.93	19.05
Depreciation	3.35	2.46	4.82	6.60	9.03	12.35	16.89	23.11	31.61	43.24
Accounts Receivable	-	-8.22	-9.48	-13.68	-18.72	-25.61	-35.03	-47.92	-65.55	-89.67
Inventories	-	-3.39	-7.18	-8.79	-12.02	-16.44	-22.49	-30.77	-42.10	-57.59
Accounts Payable	-	0.49	3.58	3.72	5.09	6.96	9.52	13.03	17.82	24.37
Capital Expenditure	-1.05	-2.25	-2.51	-10.18	-13.64	-6.44	-8.81	-12.05	-16.48	-22.54
UFCF	0.06	-5.82	-8.63	-12.05	-17.81	-23.74	-32.47	-44.42	-60.77	-83.13
WACC
PV UFCF			-10.16	-13.07	-17.81	-21.88	-27.58	-34.78	-43.85	-55.28
SUM PV UFCF										-183.37

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	8.50
Free cash flow (t + 1)	-84.79
Terminal Value	-1,304.45
Present Value of Terminal Value	-867.52

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	-1,050.89
Net Debt	-167.65
Equity Value	-883.24
Shares Outstanding	49.46
Equity Value Per Share	-17.86