Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

State Auto Financial Corporation (STFC)

$52.01

0.00 (0.00%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 25.61 | 52.01 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
Revenue 1,405.401,421.301,273.201,407.601,480.301,504.101,528.291,552.871,577.841,603.21
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 39.3051.8027.50121.3029.7057.8358.7659.7160.6761.64
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 24.7039.3018.60111.9019.1045.8046.5347.2848.0448.81
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 14.6012.508.909.4010.6012.0412.2312.4312.6312.83
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
Total Cash 2,588.302,705.602,219.302,205.902,327.902,595.512,637.252,679.662,722.752,766.53
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 80.3077.9081.40111.4011099.07100.66102.28103.93105.60
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories ----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable ----------
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure ----------
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 52.01
Beta 0.359
Diluted Shares Outstanding 44.30
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 9.03
After-tax Cost of Debt 1.76%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 5.656
Total Debt 244.10
Total Equity 2,304.04
Total Capital 2,548.14
Debt Weighting 9.58
Equity Weighting 90.42
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
Revenue 1,405.401,421.301,273.201,407.601,480.301,504.101,528.291,552.871,577.841,603.21
EBITDA 39.3051.8027.50121.3029.7057.8358.7659.7160.6761.64
EBIT 24.7039.3018.60111.9019.1045.8046.5347.2848.0448.81
Tax Rate -9.38%132.04%0.78%18.32%9.03%30.16%30.16%30.16%30.16%30.16%
EBIAT 27.02-12.5918.4691.4017.3831.9932.5033.0233.5534.09
Depreciation 14.6012.508.909.4010.6012.0412.2312.4312.6312.83
Accounts Receivable -2.40-3.50-301.4010.93-1.59-1.62-1.64-1.67
Inventories ----------
Accounts Payable ----------
Capital Expenditure ----------
UFCF -----54.9543.1443.8344.5345.25
WACC
PV UFCF 52.2038.9237.5636.2534.99
SUM PV UFCF 199.91

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 5.28
Free cash flow (t + 1) 46.16
Terminal Value 1,407.20
Present Value of Terminal Value 1,087.99

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 1,287.90
Net Debt 153.40
Equity Value 1,134.50
Shares Outstanding 44.30
Equity Value Per Share 25.61