Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

The ONE Group Hospitality, Inc. (STKS)

$6.84

+0.17 (+2.55%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 0.62 | 6.84 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 79.6685.60120.68141.94277.18388.97545.85766.011,074.971,508.53
Revenue (%)
EBITDA -0.56815.08-8.9143.7223.8333.4546.9465.8792.43
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -3.625.189.68-19.0230.745.627.8811.0615.5221.78
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 3.052.825.4010.1112.9818.2225.5635.8750.3470.65
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 1.551.5912.3424.3823.6130.9143.3760.8785.42119.87
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 5.777.2710.695.7811.7325.5935.9250.4070.7399.26
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 1.401.403.062.493.927.089.9413.9419.5727.46
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 5.335.418.277.4011.0922.6231.7544.5562.5287.74
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -4.61-4.10-4.36-5.79-12.66-17.76-24.93-34.98-49.09-68.89
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 6.84
Beta 2.387
Diluted Shares Outstanding 33.79
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 6.52
After-tax Cost of Debt 4.67%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 15.231
Total Debt 132.64
Total Equity 231.15
Total Capital 363.80
Debt Weighting 36.46
Equity Weighting 63.54
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 79.6685.60120.68141.94277.18388.97545.85766.011,074.971,508.53
EBITDA -0.56815.08-8.9143.7223.8333.4546.9465.8792.43
EBIT -3.625.189.68-19.0230.745.627.8811.0615.5221.78
Tax Rate -10.22%29.13%-108.75%0.00%6.52%-16.66%-16.66%-16.66%-16.66%-16.66%
EBIAT -3.993.6720.20-19.0228.746.559.2012.9118.1125.41
Depreciation 3.052.825.4010.1112.9818.2225.5635.8750.3470.65
Accounts Receivable --1.50-3.424.91-5.95-13.86-10.32-14.49-20.33-28.53
Inventories --0-1.650.57-1.43-3.16-2.86-4.01-5.62-7.89
Accounts Payable -0.082.87-0.873.6911.539.1212.8117.9725.22
Capital Expenditure -4.61-4.10-4.36-5.79-12.66-17.76-24.93-34.98-49.09-68.89
UFCF -5.540.9719.04-10.0825.371.515.788.1111.3815.97
WACC
PV UFCF 1.364.665.877.399.32
SUM PV UFCF 28.59

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 11.38
Free cash flow (t + 1) 16.29
Terminal Value 173.66
Present Value of Terminal Value 101.31

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 129.91
Net Debt 109.03
Equity Value 20.88
Shares Outstanding 33.79
Equity Value Per Share 0.62