Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Sutro Biopharma, Inc. (STRO)
$3.57
+0.16 (+4.69%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 38.42 | 42.74 | 42.72 | 61.88 | 67.77 | 78.88 | 91.81 | 106.86 | 124.38 | 144.77 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | -29.16 | -46.62 | -65.25 | -93.10 | -125.49 | -106.23 | -123.64 | -143.91 | -167.49 | -194.95 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | -33.69 | -51.39 | -69.55 | -97.95 | -131.18 | -114 | -132.69 | -154.44 | -179.75 | -209.22 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 4.54 | 4.78 | 4.30 | 4.84 | 5.69 | 7.77 | 9.05 | 10.53 | 12.26 | 14.27 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 204.49 | 117.86 | 368.14 | 197.94 | 302.34 | 384.27 | 447.26 | 520.58 | 605.91 | 705.24 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 2.49 | 6.30 | 5.56 | 12.45 | 7.12 | 10.23 | 11.91 | 13.86 | 16.14 | 18.78 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | -11.67 | -13.58 | -15.81 | -18.40 | -21.41 | -24.92 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 3.06 | 5.58 | 5.54 | 11.33 | 32.82 | 15.89 | 18.50 | 21.53 | 25.06 | 29.17 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -1.56 | -3.48 | -7.13 | -15.32 | -7.86 | -10.29 | -11.98 | -13.94 | -16.23 | -18.89 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 3.57 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.856 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 50.74 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | -2.14 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 4.96% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 8.295 |
| Total Debt | 67.52 |
| Total Equity | 181.14 |
| Total Capital | 248.65 |
| Debt Weighting | 27.15 |
| Equity Weighting | 72.85 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 38.42 | 42.74 | 42.72 | 61.88 | 67.77 | 78.88 | 91.81 | 106.86 | 124.38 | 144.77 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | -29.16 | -46.62 | -65.25 | -93.10 | -125.49 | -106.23 | -123.64 | -143.91 | -167.49 | -194.95 |
| EBIT | -33.69 | -51.39 | -69.55 | -97.95 | -131.18 | -114 | -132.69 | -154.44 | -179.75 | -209.22 |
| Tax Rate | 0.00% | 0.00% | -12.69% | -2.97% | -2.14% | -3.56% | -3.56% | -3.56% | -3.56% | -3.56% |
| EBIAT | -33.69 | -51.39 | -78.37 | -100.86 | -133.99 | -118.06 | -137.41 | -159.94 | -186.15 | -216.67 |
| Depreciation | 4.54 | 4.78 | 4.30 | 4.84 | 5.69 | 7.77 | 9.05 | 10.53 | 12.26 | 14.27 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -3.81 | 0.74 | -6.89 | 5.33 | -3.11 | -1.68 | -1.95 | -2.27 | -2.64 |
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | 1.91 | 2.23 | 2.59 | 3.02 | 3.51 |
| Accounts Payable | - | 2.52 | -0.04 | 5.78 | 21.50 | -16.93 | 2.61 | 3.03 | 3.53 | 4.11 |
| Capital Expenditure | -1.56 | -3.48 | -7.13 | -15.32 | -7.86 | -10.29 | -11.98 | -13.94 | -16.23 | -18.89 |
| UFCF | -30.71 | -51.38 | -80.51 | -112.45 | -109.33 | -138.70 | -137.19 | -159.68 | -185.85 | -216.32 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | -129.16 | -118.96 | -128.93 | -139.74 | -151.45 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | -668.23 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 7.39 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -220.64 |
| Terminal Value | -4,093.57 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -2,866.05 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -3,534.28 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 20.26 |
| Equity Value | -3,554.54 |
| Shares Outstanding | 50.74 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -70.06 |