Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Surteco Group SE (SUR.DE)

20.6 €

-0.30 (-1.44%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 74.09 | 20.6 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Revenue	689.65	698.98	675.27	626.99	757.06	778.93	801.44	824.59	848.41	872.92
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	80.16	74.90	68.41	90.15	117.02	97.06	99.87	102.75	105.72	108.78
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	41.74	34.32	23.24	47.98	74.78	49.75	51.18	52.66	54.18	55.75
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	38.42	40.58	45.18	42.18	42.24	47.32	48.68	50.09	51.54	53.03
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Total Cash	134.11	121.88	84.22	134.33	74.75	125.65	129.28	133.01	136.85	140.81
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	119.73	126.97	123.06	109.27	140.90	139.88	143.92	148.08	152.36	156.76
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	64.96	65.08	62.90	63.42	63.58	72.53	74.63	76.78	79	81.29
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-42.71	-50	-36.81	-38.42	-33.10	-45.64	-46.96	-48.31	-49.71	-51.15
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 20.6
Beta	0.762
Diluted Shares Outstanding	15.51
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	31.68
After-tax Cost of Debt	1.46%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	7.125
Total Debt	225.61
Total Equity	319.42
Total Capital	545.03
Debt Weighting	41.39
Equity Weighting	58.61
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Revenue	689.65	698.98	675.27	626.99	757.06	778.93	801.44	824.59	848.41	872.92
EBITDA	80.16	74.90	68.41	90.15	117.02	97.06	99.87	102.75	105.72	108.78
EBIT	41.74	34.32	23.24	47.98	74.78	49.75	51.18	52.66	54.18	55.75
Tax Rate	21.85%	31.34%	41.87%	22.20%	31.68%	29.79%	29.79%	29.79%	29.79%	29.79%
EBIAT	32.62	23.57	13.51	37.33	51.09	34.93	35.94	36.98	38.05	39.14
Depreciation	38.42	40.58	45.18	42.18	42.24	47.32	48.68	50.09	51.54	53.03
Accounts Receivable	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Inventories	-	-7.24	3.91	13.79	-31.63	1.02	-4.04	-4.16	-4.28	-4.40
Accounts Payable	-	0.12	-2.17	0.52	0.16	8.95	2.10	2.16	2.22	2.28
Capital Expenditure	-42.71	-50	-36.81	-38.42	-33.10	-45.64	-46.96	-48.31	-49.71	-51.15
UFCF	28.33	7.02	23.61	55.39	28.76	46.58	35.72	36.75	37.81	38.91
WACC
PV UFCF						44.45	32.53	31.95	31.37	30.80
SUM PV UFCF										171.11

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	4.78
Free cash flow (t + 1)	39.68
Terminal Value	1,427.45
Present Value of Terminal Value	1,130.24

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	1,301.35
Net Debt	152.56
Equity Value	1,148.79
Shares Outstanding	15.51
Equity Value Per Share	74.09