Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Surteco Group SE (SUR.DE)

20.6 €

-0.30 (-1.44%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 74.09 | 20.6 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 689.65698.98675.27626.99757.06778.93801.44824.59848.41872.92
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 80.1674.9068.4190.15117.0297.0699.87102.75105.72108.78
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 41.7434.3223.2447.9874.7849.7551.1852.6654.1855.75
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 38.4240.5845.1842.1842.2447.3248.6850.0951.5453.03
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 134.11121.8884.22134.3374.75125.65129.28133.01136.85140.81
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables ----------
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 119.73126.97123.06109.27140.90139.88143.92148.08152.36156.76
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 64.9665.0862.9063.4263.5872.5374.6376.787981.29
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -42.71-50-36.81-38.42-33.10-45.64-46.96-48.31-49.71-51.15
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 20.6
Beta 0.762
Diluted Shares Outstanding 15.51
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 31.68
After-tax Cost of Debt 1.46%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 7.125
Total Debt 225.61
Total Equity 319.42
Total Capital 545.03
Debt Weighting 41.39
Equity Weighting 58.61
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 689.65698.98675.27626.99757.06778.93801.44824.59848.41872.92
EBITDA 80.1674.9068.4190.15117.0297.0699.87102.75105.72108.78
EBIT 41.7434.3223.2447.9874.7849.7551.1852.6654.1855.75
Tax Rate 21.85%31.34%41.87%22.20%31.68%29.79%29.79%29.79%29.79%29.79%
EBIAT 32.6223.5713.5137.3351.0934.9335.9436.9838.0539.14
Depreciation 38.4240.5845.1842.1842.2447.3248.6850.0951.5453.03
Accounts Receivable ----------
Inventories --7.243.9113.79-31.631.02-4.04-4.16-4.28-4.40
Accounts Payable -0.12-2.170.520.168.952.102.162.222.28
Capital Expenditure -42.71-50-36.81-38.42-33.10-45.64-46.96-48.31-49.71-51.15
UFCF 28.337.0223.6155.3928.7646.5835.7236.7537.8138.91
WACC
PV UFCF 44.4532.5331.9531.3730.80
SUM PV UFCF 171.11

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 4.78
Free cash flow (t + 1) 39.68
Terminal Value 1,427.45
Present Value of Terminal Value 1,130.24

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 1,301.35
Net Debt 152.56
Equity Value 1,148.79
Shares Outstanding 15.51
Equity Value Per Share 74.09