Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Severn Bancorp, Inc. (SVBI)

$13.1

+0.20 (+1.55%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 41.48 | 13.1 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
Revenue 29.2629.8337.8440.7743.3347.9753.1158.8065.0972.06
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 15.2516.7021.4622.3617.3524.9227.5930.5433.8137.43
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 14.0915.4720.1520.9115.7723.1225.5928.3331.3734.73
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 1.161.231.311.441.581.801.992.212.442.70
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
Total Cash 70.5921.2823.6423.3473.5057.7563.9470.7878.3686.75
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 5.982.642.852.462.584.685.185.746.357.03
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories ----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 3.493.564.514.865.175.726.337.017.768.60
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure 2.171.170.170.231.341.481.641.822.012.23
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 13.1
Beta 0.802
Diluted Shares Outstanding 12.84
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 28.52
After-tax Cost of Debt 14.92%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 7.590
Total Debt 30.62
Total Equity 168.18
Total Capital 198.80
Debt Weighting 15.40
Equity Weighting 84.60
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
Revenue 29.2629.8337.8440.7743.3347.9753.1158.8065.0972.06
EBITDA 15.2516.7021.4622.3617.3524.9227.5930.5433.8137.43
EBIT 14.0915.4720.1520.9115.7723.1225.5928.3331.3734.73
Tax Rate -181.22%64.06%25.78%27.87%28.52%-7.00%-7.00%-7.00%-7.00%-7.00%
EBIAT 39.615.5614.9515.0811.2724.7427.3830.3233.5637.16
Depreciation 1.161.231.311.441.581.801.992.212.442.70
Accounts Receivable -3.34-0.210.39-0.12-2.11-0.50-0.55-0.61-0.68
Inventories ----------
Accounts Payable -0.070.950.350.310.550.610.680.750.83
Capital Expenditure 2.171.170.170.231.341.481.641.822.012.23
UFCF 42.9511.3717.1817.5014.3826.4731.1334.4638.1542.24
WACC
PV UFCF 24.3426.3426.8227.3127.81
SUM PV UFCF 132.61

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 8.72
Free cash flow (t + 1) 43.08
Terminal Value 641.12
Present Value of Terminal Value 422.08

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 554.69
Net Debt 22.22
Equity Value 532.47
Shares Outstanding 12.84
Equity Value Per Share 41.48