Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Swiss Water Decaffeinated Coffee In... (SWP.TO)
$2.88
-0.04 (-1.37%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 83.75 | 89.94 | 97.23 | 97.57 | 125.08 | 138.84 | 154.13 | 171.09 | 189.93 | 210.83 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 9.35 | 9.37 | 9.61 | 11.77 | 11.58 | 14.66 | 16.27 | 18.06 | 20.05 | 22.26 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 7.18 | 7.68 | 5.91 | 7.09 | 5.37 | 9.65 | 10.71 | 11.89 | 13.20 | 14.65 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 2.17 | 1.69 | 3.70 | 4.68 | 6.21 | 5.01 | 5.56 | 6.17 | 6.85 | 7.60 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Total Cash | 15.37 | 8.34 | 6.74 | 2.75 | 4.25 | 11.32 | 12.57 | 13.95 | 15.49 | 17.19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 12.13 | 14.31 | 14.59 | 15.42 | 14.08 | 20.12 | 22.33 | 24.79 | 27.52 | 30.55 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 14.67 | 14.44 | 16.58 | 17.54 | 31.50 | 26.04 | 28.91 | 32.09 | 35.62 | 39.55 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 2.64 | 6.56 | 11.10 | 9.37 | 8.60 | 10.65 | 11.82 | 13.12 | 14.56 | 16.17 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -8.13 | -21.03 | -18.71 | -12.54 | -13.72 | -21.15 | -23.47 | -26.06 | -28.93 | -32.11 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 2.88 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.697 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 107.49 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 50.65 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 2.43% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 11.389 |
| Total Debt | 88.57 |
| Total Equity | 309.56 |
| Total Capital | 398.13 |
| Debt Weighting | 22.25 |
| Equity Weighting | 77.75 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 83.75 | 89.94 | 97.23 | 97.57 | 125.08 | 138.84 | 154.13 | 171.09 | 189.93 | 210.83 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 9.35 | 9.37 | 9.61 | 11.77 | 11.58 | 14.66 | 16.27 | 18.06 | 20.05 | 22.26 |
| EBIT | 7.18 | 7.68 | 5.91 | 7.09 | 5.37 | 9.65 | 10.71 | 11.89 | 13.20 | 14.65 |
| Tax Rate | 27.85% | 27.15% | 26.46% | 26.40% | 50.65% | 31.70% | 31.70% | 31.70% | 31.70% | 31.70% |
| EBIAT | 5.18 | 5.59 | 4.35 | 5.22 | 2.65 | 6.59 | 7.32 | 8.12 | 9.02 | 10.01 |
| Depreciation | 2.17 | 1.69 | 3.70 | 4.68 | 6.21 | 5.01 | 5.56 | 6.17 | 6.85 | 7.60 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -2.19 | -0.27 | -0.83 | 1.35 | -6.05 | -2.21 | -2.46 | -2.73 | -3.03 |
| Inventories | - | 0.23 | -2.14 | -0.96 | -13.96 | 5.46 | -2.87 | -3.18 | -3.53 | -3.92 |
| Accounts Payable | - | 3.92 | 4.54 | -1.74 | -0.77 | 2.04 | 1.17 | 1.30 | 1.44 | 1.60 |
| Capital Expenditure | -8.13 | -21.03 | -18.71 | -12.54 | -13.72 | -21.15 | -23.47 | -26.06 | -28.93 | -32.11 |
| UFCF | -0.78 | -11.78 | -8.54 | -6.16 | -18.24 | -8.09 | -14.51 | -16.11 | -17.88 | -19.85 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | -7.39 | -12.12 | -12.30 | -12.48 | -12.66 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | -56.96 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 9.40 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -20.24 |
| Terminal Value | -273.56 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -174.57 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -231.53 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 84.32 |
| Equity Value | -315.85 |
| Shares Outstanding | 107.49 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -2.94 |