Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Tricon Residential Inc. (TCN.TO)

$11.31

-0.54 (-4.56%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 236,121.51 | 11.31 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 25.4030.3539.90512.28492.442,008.078,188.5933,391.71136,165.88555,261.94
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 111.65275.93165.15331.15779.557,975.1832,521.45132,617.11540,790.662,205,254.93
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 106.28270.39158.88320.31767.427,735.3131,543.33128,628.49524,525.722,138,929.21
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 5.375.546.2710.8512.13239.86978.123,988.6216,264.9366,325.72
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 14.817.778.9155.16176.89614.282,504.9410,214.7241,653.96169,857.95
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 13.5117.938.9525.5941.58594.992,426.299,894.0140,346.15164,524.94
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories ----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 6.191.9017.7931.18102.95410.441,673.706,825.0727,831.52113,492.35
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -14.82-12.09-10.02-13.03-32.87-532.22-2,170.32-8,850.19-36,089.62-147,167.50
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 11.31
Beta 1.333
Diluted Shares Outstanding 194.63
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 37.12
After-tax Cost of Debt 2.11%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 9.995
Total Debt 3,917.43
Total Equity 2,201.23
Total Capital 6,118.67
Debt Weighting 64.02
Equity Weighting 35.98
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 25.4030.3539.90512.28492.442,008.078,188.5933,391.71136,165.88555,261.94
EBITDA 111.65275.93165.15331.15779.557,975.1832,521.45132,617.11540,790.662,205,254.93
EBIT 106.28270.39158.88320.31767.427,735.3131,543.33128,628.49524,525.722,138,929.21
Tax Rate 16.21%0.02%13.53%25.83%37.12%18.54%18.54%18.54%18.54%18.54%
EBIAT 89.05270.35137.39237.57482.526,301.0225,694.51104,777.98427,267.281,742,325.37
Depreciation 5.375.546.2710.8512.13239.86978.123,988.6216,264.9366,325.72
Accounts Receivable --4.438.98-16.64-15.99-553.41-1,831.30-7,467.72-30,452.14-124,178.79
Inventories ----------
Accounts Payable --4.2915.8913.3971.77307.481,263.265,151.3721,006.4585,660.83
Capital Expenditure -14.82-12.09-10.02-13.03-32.88-532.22-2,170.32-8,850.19-36,089.62-147,167.50
UFCF 79.60255.09158.52232.14517.565,762.7323,934.2897,600.06397,996.911,622,965.62
WACC
PV UFCF 5,491.4521,733.9384,455.30328,182.531,275,275.52
SUM PV UFCF 1,715,138.73

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 4.94
Free cash flow (t + 1) 1,655,424.94
Terminal Value 56,306,970.64
Present Value of Terminal Value 44,244,252.61

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 45,959,391.34
Net Debt 3,740.54
Equity Value 45,955,650.80
Shares Outstanding 194.63
Equity Value Per Share 236,121.51