Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Tredegar Corporation (TG)

$9.6

-0.19 (-1.94%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 2.12 | 9.6 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 961.331,065.47972.36755.29826.45804.12782.40761.26740.69720.68
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 31.5375.87109.09-46.3694.2843.2542.0840.9439.8438.76
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -8.7442.0762.22-81.0770.5011.6411.3211.0110.7210.43
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 40.2833.8046.8734.7123.7831.6130.7629.9329.1228.33
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 36.4934.4031.4246.4530.5232.3231.4530.6029.7728.97
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 152.22131.51111.6689.13105.87103.36100.5797.8595.2192.64
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 86.9193.8181.3866.4488.5773.5471.5569.6267.7465.91
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 108.39112.76103.6689.70123.7695.4892.9090.3987.9585.57
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -44.36-40.81-50.86-23.36-27.36-32.29-31.42-30.57-29.74-28.94
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 9.6
Beta 0.889
Diluted Shares Outstanding 33.40
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 13.98
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.31%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 7.893
Total Debt 87.99
Total Equity 320.66
Total Capital 408.65
Debt Weighting 21.53
Equity Weighting 78.47
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 961.331,065.47972.36755.29826.45804.12782.40761.26740.69720.68
EBITDA 31.5375.87109.09-46.3694.2843.2542.0840.9439.8438.76
EBIT -8.7442.0762.22-81.0770.5011.6411.3211.0110.7210.43
Tax Rate 356.51%31.69%17.04%-201.22%13.98%43.60%43.60%43.60%43.60%43.60%
EBIAT 22.4228.7451.62-244.2060.646.566.386.216.045.88
Depreciation 40.2833.8046.8734.7123.7831.6130.7629.9329.1228.33
Accounts Receivable -20.7119.8522.52-16.742.512.792.722.642.57
Inventories --6.9012.4314.94-22.1315.031.991.931.881.83
Accounts Payable -4.37-9.10-13.9534.06-28.28-2.58-2.51-2.44-2.38
Capital Expenditure -44.36-40.81-50.86-23.36-27.36-32.29-31.42-30.57-29.74-28.94
UFCF 18.3439.9070.81-209.3352.26-4.867.927.717.507.30
WACC
PV UFCF -4.556.936.315.745.23
SUM PV UFCF 19.66

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 6.91
Free cash flow (t + 1) 7.44
Terminal Value 151.61
Present Value of Terminal Value 108.55

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 128.21
Net Debt 57.47
Equity Value 70.75
Shares Outstanding 33.40
Equity Value Per Share 2.12