Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

TransGlobe Energy Corporation (TGL.TO)

$3.98

+0.10 (+2.58%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -5.34 | 3.98 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 148.46299.14140.10188.77169.01199.68235.92278.74329.33389.10
Revenue (%)
EBITDA -50.6846.7325.99-61.7489.328.069.5211.2513.2915.70
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -----8.069.5211.2513.2915.70
EBIT (%)
Depreciation ----------
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 47.4551.7133.2534.5137.9345.4153.6563.3974.8988.48
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 18.0912.0110.681012.2214.5217.1520.2623.9428.29
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 11.478.6917.525.8311.0813.0915.4718.2721.5925.51
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable ----------
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -37.21-40.12-36-7.06-26.73-33.44-39.51-46.68-55.15-65.16
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 3.98
Beta 2.362
Diluted Shares Outstanding 73.34
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 35.72
After-tax Cost of Debt 19.10%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 13.990
Total Debt 3.84
Total Equity 291.90
Total Capital 295.74
Debt Weighting 1.30
Equity Weighting 98.70
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 148.46299.14140.10188.77169.01199.68235.92278.74329.33389.10
EBITDA -50.6846.7325.99-61.7489.328.069.5211.2513.2915.70
EBIT -----8.069.5211.2513.2915.70
Tax Rate -38.33%62.69%118.07%-21.18%35.72%31.39%31.39%31.39%31.39%31.39%
EBIAT -----5.536.537.729.1210.77
Depreciation ----------
Accounts Receivable -6.081.330.69-2.22-2.30-2.63-3.11-3.68-4.35
Inventories -2.78-8.8211.69-5.25-2.01-2.38-2.81-3.32-3.92
Accounts Payable ----------
Capital Expenditure -37.21-40.12-36-7.06-26.73-33.44-39.51-46.68-55.15-65.16
UFCF ------32.22-37.98-44.88-53.02-62.65
WACC
PV UFCF -28.25-29.20-30.24-31.33-32.45
SUM PV UFCF -151.46

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 14.06
Free cash flow (t + 1) -63.90
Terminal Value -529.83
Present Value of Terminal Value -274.46

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -425.92
Net Debt -34.09
Equity Value -391.83
Shares Outstanding 73.34
Equity Value Per Share -5.34