Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Texas Instruments Incorporated (TII.DE)

170.3 €

+3.30 (+1.98%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 157.10 | 170.3 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	15,784	14,383	14,461	18,344	20,028	21,414.83	22,897.70	24,483.24	26,178.57	27,991.30
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	7,765	6,948	7,199	10,057	11,225	11,056.72	11,822.34	12,640.97	13,516.29	14,452.22
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	6,811	5,898	6,207	9,103	10,246	9,759.28	10,435.06	11,157.63	11,930.24	12,756.34
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	954	1,050	992	954	979	1,297.44	1,387.28	1,483.34	1,586.05	1,695.88
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Total Cash	4,233	5,387	6,568	9,739	9,067	8,910.86	9,527.89	10,187.65	10,893.09	11,647.38
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	1,207	1,074	1,414	1,701	1,895	1,868.52	1,997.90	2,136.25	2,284.17	2,442.34
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	2,217	2,001	1,955	1,910	2,757	2,811.99	3,006.70	3,214.90	3,437.51	3,675.54
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	478	388	415	653	851	702.60	751.26	803.28	858.90	918.37
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-1,131	-847	-649	-2,462	-2,797	-1,924.30	-2,057.54	-2,200.02	-2,352.36	-2,515.24
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 170.3
Beta	1.013
Diluted Shares Outstanding	926
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	12.79
After-tax Cost of Debt	2.14%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	8.311
Total Debt	8,735
Total Equity	157,697.80
Total Capital	166,432.80
Debt Weighting	5.25
Equity Weighting	94.75
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	15,784	14,383	14,461	18,344	20,028	21,414.83	22,897.70	24,483.24	26,178.57	27,991.30
EBITDA	7,765	6,948	7,199	10,057	11,225	11,056.72	11,822.34	12,640.97	13,516.29	14,452.22
EBIT	6,811	5,898	6,207	9,103	10,246	9,759.28	10,435.06	11,157.63	11,930.24	12,756.34
Tax Rate	16.54%	12.41%	7.01%	12.89%	12.79%	12.33%	12.33%	12.33%	12.33%	12.33%
EBIAT	5,684.32	5,165.90	5,771.67	7,929.28	8,935.63	8,555.94	9,148.39	9,781.87	10,459.21	11,183.46
Depreciation	954	1,050	992	954	979	1,297.44	1,387.28	1,483.34	1,586.05	1,695.88
Accounts Receivable	-	133	-340	-287	-194	26.48	-129.38	-138.34	-147.92	-158.17
Inventories	-	216	46	45	-847	-54.99	-194.72	-208.20	-222.61	-238.03
Accounts Payable	-	-90	27	238	198	-148.40	48.65	52.02	55.62	59.47
Capital Expenditure	-1,131	-847	-649	-2,462	-2,797	-1,924.30	-2,057.54	-2,200.02	-2,352.36	-2,515.24
UFCF	5,507.32	5,627.90	5,847.67	6,417.28	6,274.63	7,752.18	8,202.68	8,770.67	9,377.99	10,027.37
WACC
PV UFCF						7,178.61	7,033.78	6,964.38	6,895.66	6,827.62
SUM PV UFCF										34,900.04

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	7.99
Free cash flow (t + 1)	10,227.92
Terminal Value	170,749.87
Present Value of Terminal Value	116,263.31

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	151,163.35
Net Debt	5,685
Equity Value	145,478.35
Shares Outstanding	926
Equity Value Per Share	157.10