Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Taseko Mines Limited (TKO.TO)

$1.71

-0.12 (-6.56%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 0.51 | 1.71 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 378.30343.87329.16343.27433.28451.83471.18491.36512.40534.34
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 142.1367.5358.6399.97176.25130.87136.47142.32148.41154.77
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 94.40-3.25-51.134.6774.1024.3525.3926.4727.6128.79
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 47.7270.78109.7695.30102.15106.53111.09115.84120.80125.98
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 82.6749.2553.9386.90239.88120.40125.56130.93136.54142.39
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 21.6214.7413.796.699.6016.5917.3018.0418.8119.62
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 39.6438.9943.6258.8479.8763.8466.5769.4272.3975.49
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 23.8821.8624.1732.7730.1032.9934.4035.8837.4139.02
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -97.22-94.87-50.75-65.50-87.73-97.63-101.81-106.17-110.71-115.45
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 1.71
Beta 2.118
Diluted Shares Outstanding 250.53
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 48.50
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.76%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 13.701
Total Debt 531.75
Total Equity 428.40
Total Capital 960.15
Debt Weighting 55.38
Equity Weighting 44.62
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 378.30343.87329.16343.27433.28451.83471.18491.36512.40534.34
EBITDA 142.1367.5358.6399.97176.25130.87136.47142.32148.41154.77
EBIT 94.40-3.25-51.134.6774.1024.3525.3926.4727.6128.79
Tax Rate 45.99%-1.27%37.72%27.88%48.50%31.77%31.77%31.77%31.77%31.77%
EBIAT 50.99-3.29-31.843.3738.1716.6117.3218.0618.8419.65
Depreciation 47.7270.78109.7695.30102.15106.53111.09115.84120.80125.98
Accounts Receivable -6.880.947.10-2.92-6.98-0.71-0.74-0.77-0.81
Inventories -0.65-4.63-15.22-21.0316.03-2.73-2.85-2.97-3.10
Accounts Payable --2.022.318.60-2.672.891.411.471.541.60
Capital Expenditure -97.22-94.87-50.75-65.50-87.73-97.63-101.81-106.17-110.71-115.45
UFCF 1.48-21.8625.7933.6625.9737.4524.5725.6226.7227.87
WACC
PV UFCF 34.6120.9920.2319.5018.79
SUM PV UFCF 114.12

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 8.20
Free cash flow (t + 1) 28.42
Terminal Value 458.45
Present Value of Terminal Value 309.14

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 423.26
Net Debt 294.98
Equity Value 128.28
Shares Outstanding 250.53
Equity Value Per Share 0.51