Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Teekay Tankers Ltd. (TNK)
$36.18
-0.56 (-1.52%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 755.76 | 943.92 | 886.43 | 542.37 | 1,063.11 | 1,265.11 | 1,505.50 | 1,791.56 | 2,131.98 | 2,537.08 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 124.62 | 250.83 | 263.34 | -103.19 | 364.39 | 222.71 | 265.03 | 315.39 | 375.31 | 446.63 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 6.11 | 126.83 | 146.13 | -209.27 | 265.36 | 43.28 | 51.50 | 61.29 | 72.93 | 86.79 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 118.51 | 124 | 117.21 | 106.08 | 99.03 | 179.43 | 213.53 | 254.10 | 302.38 | 359.84 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 54.92 | 88.82 | 97.23 | 50.57 | 180.51 | 136.50 | 162.44 | 193.31 | 230.04 | 273.75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 113.58 | 203.22 | 68.08 | 89.81 | 202.12 | 201.93 | 240.30 | 285.96 | 340.30 | 404.96 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | - | 49.79 | 34.61 | 49.03 | 60.83 | 75.72 | 90.11 | 107.23 | 127.60 | 151.85 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 11.15 | 70.98 | 31.06 | 34.83 | 89.82 | 69.25 | 82.41 | 98.07 | 116.70 | 138.87 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -5.83 | -11.63 | -16.02 | -21.45 | -15.43 | -23.32 | -27.75 | -33.02 | -39.30 | -46.77 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 36.18 |
|---|---|
| Beta | -0.148 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 34.29 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 0.23 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 6.19% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 3.013 |
| Total Debt | 576.20 |
| Total Equity | 1,240.51 |
| Total Capital | 1,816.71 |
| Debt Weighting | 31.72 |
| Equity Weighting | 68.28 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 755.76 | 943.92 | 886.43 | 542.37 | 1,063.11 | 1,265.11 | 1,505.50 | 1,791.56 | 2,131.98 | 2,537.08 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 124.62 | 250.83 | 263.34 | -103.19 | 364.39 | 222.71 | 265.03 | 315.39 | 375.31 | 446.63 |
| EBIT | 6.11 | 126.83 | 146.13 | -209.27 | 265.36 | 43.28 | 51.50 | 61.29 | 72.93 | 86.79 |
| Tax Rate | 0.00% | 32.71% | 7.70% | 0.79% | 0.23% | 8.29% | 8.29% | 8.29% | 8.29% | 8.29% |
| EBIAT | 6.11 | 85.35 | 134.88 | -207.62 | 264.74 | 39.69 | 47.23 | 56.21 | 66.89 | 79.60 |
| Depreciation | 118.51 | 124 | 117.21 | 106.08 | 99.03 | 179.43 | 213.53 | 254.10 | 302.38 | 359.84 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -89.64 | 135.14 | -21.73 | -112.31 | 0.18 | -38.37 | -45.66 | -54.34 | -64.66 |
| Inventories | - | - | 15.18 | -14.42 | -11.80 | -14.89 | -14.39 | -17.12 | -20.37 | -24.25 |
| Accounts Payable | - | 59.83 | -39.92 | 3.77 | 54.99 | -20.57 | 13.16 | 15.66 | 18.63 | 22.17 |
| Capital Expenditure | -5.83 | -11.63 | -16.02 | -21.45 | -15.43 | -23.32 | -27.75 | -33.02 | -39.30 | -46.77 |
| UFCF | 118.79 | 167.91 | 346.47 | -155.36 | 279.22 | 160.53 | 193.41 | 230.16 | 273.90 | 325.94 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 154.33 | 178.75 | 204.50 | 233.95 | 267.64 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 1,039.17 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 4.02 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 332.46 |
| Terminal Value | 16,458.34 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 13,514.56 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 14,553.72 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 395.69 |
| Equity Value | 14,158.03 |
| Shares Outstanding | 34.29 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 412.93 |