Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL)

$42.42

+0.33 (+0.78%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -55.26 | 42.42 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 5,815.067,143.267,223.977,077.668,790.369,804.4210,935.4512,196.9713,604.0115,173.36
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 839.67959.17859.32658.211,176.561,224.521,365.781,523.341,699.071,895.07
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 814.31933.92787.17589.341,100.311,153.361,286.411,434.811,600.331,784.94
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 25.3625.2672.1568.8776.2571.1679.3788.5398.74110.13
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 712.831,182.191,286.011,370.941,638.491,659.301,850.712,064.212,302.342,567.94
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 99.3196.94121.65109.7984.40142.37158.79177.11197.54220.33
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 7,281.457,598.227,873.057,658.917,915.8810,565.9411,784.8213,144.3214,660.6516,351.90
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 275.22362.10348.60411.40562.47526.28586.99654.71730.23814.47
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -0.71-0.972.420.70-66.88-14.57-16.26-18.13-20.22-22.55
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 42.42
Beta 1.481
Diluted Shares Outstanding 125.81
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 24.24
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.79%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 10.686
Total Debt 3,795.53
Total Equity 5,336.73
Total Capital 9,132.26
Debt Weighting 41.56
Equity Weighting 58.44
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 5,815.067,143.267,223.977,077.668,790.369,804.4210,935.4512,196.9713,604.0115,173.36
EBITDA 839.67959.17859.32658.211,176.561,224.521,365.781,523.341,699.071,895.07
EBIT 814.31933.92787.17589.341,100.311,153.361,286.411,434.811,600.331,784.94
Tax Rate 34.24%19.89%25.05%23.90%24.24%25.46%25.46%25.46%25.46%25.46%
EBIAT 535.50748.15590.01448.48833.63859.68958.851,069.461,192.831,330.44
Depreciation 25.3625.2672.1568.8776.2571.1679.3788.5398.74110.13
Accounts Receivable -2.37-24.7211.8625.39-57.97-16.42-18.32-20.43-22.79
Inventories --316.77-274.83214.14-256.98-2,650.05-1,218.89-1,359.50-1,516.33-1,691.25
Accounts Payable -86.88-13.5062.80151.07-36.1960.7167.7275.5384.24
Capital Expenditure -0.71-0.972.420.70-66.88-14.57-16.26-18.13-20.22-22.55
UFCF 560.15544.93351.53806.86762.48-1,827.95-152.64-170.24-189.88-211.79
WACC
PV UFCF -1,695.37-131.30-135.82-140.50-145.35
SUM PV UFCF -2,248.34

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 7.82
Free cash flow (t + 1) -216.02
Terminal Value -3,711.73
Present Value of Terminal Value -2,547.30

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -4,795.64
Net Debt 2,157.04
Equity Value -6,952.67
Shares Outstanding 125.81
Equity Value Per Share -55.26