Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Tri Pointe Homes, Inc. (TPH)

$16.57

+0.12 (+0.73%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: - | 16.57 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 2,810.273,262.753,083.023,251.313,982.234,365.844,786.405,247.475,752.966,307.14
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 342.96389.56299.48220.53658.08499.15547.24599.95657.74721.10
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 339.46360.46271.09191.04625.66467.21512.21561.55615.65674.95
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 3.5029.1028.4029.5032.4231.9535.0238.4042.1046.15
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 282.91277.70329.01621.30681.53571.69626.76687.14753.33825.90
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 125.6051.5969.2863.55117115.17126.27138.43151.76166.38
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 3,105.553,216.063,065.442,910.143,054.744,145.124,544.424,982.185,462.125,988.28
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 72.8781.3166.1279.6984.85103.14113.07123.96135.90149
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -2.61-31.65-30.28-22.80-29.49-30.44-33.38-36.59-40.12-43.98
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 16.57
Beta 1.429
Diluted Shares Outstanding 129.95
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 25.00
After-tax Cost of Debt -%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 10.569
Total Debt 1,414.99
Total Equity 2,153.29
Total Capital 3,568.28
Debt Weighting 39.65
Equity Weighting 60.35
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 2,810.273,262.753,083.023,251.313,982.234,365.844,786.405,247.475,752.966,307.14
EBITDA 342.96389.56299.48220.53658.08499.15547.24599.95657.74721.10
EBIT 339.46360.46271.09191.04625.66467.21512.21561.55615.65674.95
Tax Rate 44.91%25.45%23.57%21.10%25.00%28.01%28.01%28.01%28.01%28.01%
EBIAT 186.99268.72207.19150.72469.27336.35368.75404.28443.22485.91
Depreciation 3.5029.1028.4029.5032.4231.9535.0238.4042.1046.15
Accounts Receivable -74.01-17.685.72-53.441.82-11.09-12.16-13.33-14.62
Inventories --110.51150.62155.29-144.60-1,090.38-399.30-437.76-479.93-526.16
Accounts Payable -8.44-15.1913.575.1618.289.9410.8911.9413.09
Capital Expenditure -2.60-31.65-30.28-22.80-29.49-30.44-33.38-36.59-40.12-43.98
UFCF 187.89238.11323.05332.01279.32-732.42-30.06-32.95-36.13-39.61
WACC
PV UFCF -----
SUM PV UFCF -

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) -
Free cash flow (t + 1) -40.40
Terminal Value -
Present Value of Terminal Value -

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -
Net Debt 733.46
Equity Value -
Shares Outstanding 129.95
Equity Value Per Share -