Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Turquoise Hill Resources Ltd. (TRQ.TO)

$41.13

+0.34 (+0.83%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -389.94 | 41.13 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 939.781,180.021,166.011,078.191,971.042,462.103,075.503,841.724,798.835,994.40
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 483.34529.17203.39283.461,004.27940.331,174.591,467.231,832.772,289.38
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 175.73317.9711.34102.20838.91485.81606.85758.04946.891,182.80
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 307.60211.20192.05181.26165.37454.51567.75709.19885.881,106.59
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 1,444.781,603.071,651.981,123.62694.412,810.283,510.434,385.015,477.476,842.11
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 1,396.681,650.34538.3360.0116.121,679.282,097.652,620.253,273.054,088.49
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 274.14242.97175.72197.96290.02482.11602.22752.25939.671,173.77
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 360.70395.88389.48315.57320.79742.94928.041,159.241,448.061,808.82
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -917.54-1,304.35-1,308.07-1,080.52-996.92-2,320.02-2,898.02-3,620.03-4,521.91-5,648.48
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 41.13
Beta 1.675
Diluted Shares Outstanding 201.23
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 47.14
After-tax Cost of Debt 0.03%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 11.836
Total Debt 4,182.78
Total Equity 8,276.63
Total Capital 12,459.41
Debt Weighting 33.57
Equity Weighting 66.43
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 939.781,180.021,166.011,078.191,971.042,462.103,075.503,841.724,798.835,994.40
EBITDA 483.34529.17203.39283.461,004.27940.331,174.591,467.231,832.772,289.38
EBIT 175.73317.9711.34102.20838.91485.81606.85758.04946.891,182.80
Tax Rate 520.67%-62.13%52.95%-115.83%47.14%88.56%88.56%88.56%88.56%88.56%
EBIAT -739.26515.515.33220.59443.4855.5769.4286.71108.31135.30
Depreciation 307.60211.20192.05181.26165.37454.51567.75709.19885.881,106.59
Accounts Receivable --253.661,112.01478.3243.89-1,663.16-418.37-522.60-652.80-815.44
Inventories -31.1767.25-22.24-92.06-192.09-120.11-150.03-187.41-234.11
Accounts Payable -35.19-6.41-73.915.22422.15185.09231.21288.81360.76
Capital Expenditure -917.54-1,304.35-1,308.07-1,080.52-996.92-2,320.02-2,898.02-3,620.03-4,521.91-5,648.48
UFCF -1,349.19-764.9462.16-296.50-431.01-3,243.04-2,614.25-3,265.55-4,079.12-5,095.38
WACC
PV UFCF -3,006.43-2,246.70-2,601.68-3,012.75-3,488.77
SUM PV UFCF -14,356.34

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 7.87
Free cash flow (t + 1) -5,197.28
Terminal Value -88,539.77
Present Value of Terminal Value -60,622.66

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -74,979
Net Debt 3,488.48
Equity Value -78,467.49
Shares Outstanding 201.23
Equity Value Per Share -389.94