Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Turquoise Hill Resources Ltd. (TRQ)

$29.91

-0.41 (-1.35%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -480.88 | 29.91 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 939.781,180.021,166.011,078.191,971.042,462.103,075.503,841.724,798.835,994.40
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 342.62589.01300.40283.461,004.27932.531,164.861,455.071,817.582,270.41
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 35.01377.81108.35102.20838.91478.02597.12745.88931.701,163.83
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 307.60211.20192.05181.26165.37454.51567.75709.19885.881,106.59
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 1,444.781,603.071,651.981,123.62694.412,810.283,510.434,385.015,477.476,842.11
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 1,396.681,650.34538.3360.0116.121,679.282,097.652,620.253,273.054,088.49
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 274.14242.97175.72197.96290.02482.11602.22752.25939.671,173.77
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable ---315.57320.79560.67700.35874.831,092.781,365.03
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -917.54-1,304.35-1,308.07-1,080.52-996.92-2,320.02-2,898.02-3,620.03-4,521.91-5,648.48
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 29.91
Beta 1.675
Diluted Shares Outstanding 201.23
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 47.14
After-tax Cost of Debt 0.03%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 11.604
Total Debt 4,182.78
Total Equity 6,018.82
Total Capital 10,201.60
Debt Weighting 41.00
Equity Weighting 59.00
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 939.781,180.021,166.011,078.191,971.042,462.103,075.503,841.724,798.835,994.40
EBITDA 342.62589.01300.40283.461,004.27932.531,164.861,455.071,817.582,270.41
EBIT 35.01377.81108.35102.20838.91478.02597.12745.88931.701,163.83
Tax Rate 520.67%-62.13%52.95%-115.83%47.14%88.56%88.56%88.56%88.56%88.56%
EBIAT -147.29612.5250.98220.59443.4854.6868.3085.32106.57133.13
Depreciation 307.60211.20192.05181.26165.37454.51567.75709.19885.881,106.59
Accounts Receivable --253.661,112.01478.3243.89-1,663.16-418.37-522.60-652.80-815.44
Inventories -31.1767.25-22.24-92.06-192.09-120.11-150.03-187.41-234.11
Accounts Payable ----5.22239.87139.68174.48217.95272.25
Capital Expenditure -917.54-1,304.35-1,308.07-1,080.52-996.92-2,320.02-2,898.02-3,620.03-4,521.91-5,648.48
UFCF -757.23-703.11114.21-222.59-431.01-3,426.21-2,660.77-3,323.67-4,151.71-5,186.06
WACC
PV UFCF -3,206.26-2,330.11-2,723.78-3,183.95-3,721.87
SUM PV UFCF -15,165.98

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 6.86
Free cash flow (t + 1) -5,289.78
Terminal Value -108,843.20
Present Value of Terminal Value -78,113.38

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -93,279.36
Net Debt 3,488.48
Equity Value -96,767.84
Shares Outstanding 201.23
Equity Value Per Share -480.88