Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Trupanion, Inc. (TRUP)

$59.71

-1.64 (-2.67%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -38.08 | 59.71 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 242.67303.96383.94502.03698.99911.421,188.401,549.562,020.472,634.50
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 2.834.785.342.72-23.252.463.204.185.457.10
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -1.400.26-0.29-4.35-35.21-11.79-15.37-20.05-26.14-34.08
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 4.234.515.637.0711.9614.2518.5824.2231.5841.18
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 63.3081.1198.90229.74213.41282.21367.98479.81625.63815.76
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 20.3731.5754.4199.06165.22139.12181.39236.52308.40402.12
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories ----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 2.722.774.096.068.9510.1713.2717.3022.5629.41
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -3.13-59.90-5.37-7.45-12.36-46.75-60.96-79.48-103.64-135.13
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 59.71
Beta 1.942
Diluted Shares Outstanding 35.86
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -0.88
After-tax Cost of Debt 5.00%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 13.132
Total Debt -
Total Equity 2,141.13
Total Capital 2,141.13
Debt Weighting 0.00
Equity Weighting 100.00
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 242.67303.96383.94502.03698.99911.421,188.401,549.562,020.472,634.50
EBITDA 2.834.785.342.72-23.252.463.204.185.457.10
EBIT -1.400.26-0.29-4.35-35.21-11.79-15.37-20.05-26.14-34.08
Tax Rate 22.16%0.75%-10.30%-1.97%-0.88%1.95%1.95%1.95%1.95%1.95%
EBIAT -1.090.26-0.32-4.43-35.52-11.56-15.07-19.65-25.63-33.41
Depreciation 4.234.515.637.0711.9614.2518.5824.2231.5841.18
Accounts Receivable --11.20-22.84-44.66-66.1526.10-42.28-55.13-71.88-93.72
Inventories ----------
Accounts Payable -0.051.321.972.891.223.094.035.266.85
Capital Expenditure -3.13-59.90-5.37-7.45-12.36-46.75-60.96-79.48-103.64-135.13
UFCF 0.01-66.27-21.58-47.50-99.17-16.74-96.64-126.01-164.30-214.23
WACC
PV UFCF -14.80-75.51-87.03-100.31-115.61
SUM PV UFCF -393.25

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 13.13
Free cash flow (t + 1) -218.52
Terminal Value -1,963.34
Present Value of Terminal Value -1,059.51

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -1,452.77
Net Debt -87.40
Equity Value -1,365.37
Shares Outstanding 35.86
Equity Value Per Share -38.08