Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Trinseo PLC (TSE)

$26.47

-0.29 (-1.08%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 178.68 | 26.47 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 4,448.104,622.803,775.803,0354,827.505,129.785,450.995,792.316,1556,540.41
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 591.80540.90279.90221.90590.30533.06566.44601.91639.60679.65
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 481.20410.70143.9087.60429.43362.11384.79408.88434.48461.69
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 110.60130.20136134.30160.87170.95181.65193.03205.11217.96
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 432.80452.30456.20828820.80778.50827.25879.05934.09992.58
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 685.50648.10570.80529740.20793.18842.84895.62951.701,011.29
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 510.40510.40438.20384621611.85650.16690.87734.13780.10
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 387.30319.90304.60355427.13453.87482.29512.49544.58578.68
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -147.40-121.40-110.10-82.30-117.70-143.69-152.69-162.25-172.41-183.21
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 26.47
Beta 1.414
Diluted Shares Outstanding 38.60
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -25.53
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.34%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 10.192
Total Debt 2,374.80
Total Equity 1,021.74
Total Capital 3,396.54
Debt Weighting 69.92
Equity Weighting 30.08
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 4,448.104,622.803,775.803,0354,827.505,129.785,450.995,792.316,1556,540.41
EBITDA 591.80540.90279.90221.90590.30533.06566.44601.91639.60679.65
EBIT 481.20410.70143.9087.60429.43362.11384.79408.88434.48461.69
Tax Rate 20.14%19.71%12.05%84.44%-25.53%22.16%22.16%22.16%22.16%22.16%
EBIAT 384.28329.76126.5713.63539.08281.86299.51318.27338.20359.37
Depreciation 110.60130.20136134.30160.87170.95181.65193.03205.11217.96
Accounts Receivable -37.4077.3041.80-211.20-52.98-49.67-52.78-56.08-59.59
Inventories --072.2054.20-2379.15-38.31-40.71-43.26-45.97
Accounts Payable --67.40-15.3050.4072.1326.7528.4230.2032.0934.10
Capital Expenditure -147.40-121.40-110.10-82.30-117.70-143.69-152.69-162.25-172.41-183.21
UFCF 347.48308.55286.67212.03206.18292.04268.92285.76303.65322.66
WACC
PV UFCF 277.08242.07244.05246.04248.06
SUM PV UFCF 1,257.29

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 5.40
Free cash flow (t + 1) 329.12
Terminal Value 9,679.94
Present Value of Terminal Value 7,441.65

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 8,698.95
Net Debt 1,801.80
Equity Value 6,897.15
Shares Outstanding 38.60
Equity Value Per Share 178.68