Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Trinseo PLC (TSE)

$26.47

-0.29 (-1.08%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 178.68 | 26.47 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Revenue	4,448.10	4,622.80	3,775.80	3,035	4,827.50	5,129.78	5,450.99	5,792.31	6,155	6,540.41
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	591.80	540.90	279.90	221.90	590.30	533.06	566.44	601.91	639.60	679.65
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	481.20	410.70	143.90	87.60	429.43	362.11	384.79	408.88	434.48	461.69
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	110.60	130.20	136	134.30	160.87	170.95	181.65	193.03	205.11	217.96
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Total Cash	432.80	452.30	456.20	828	820.80	778.50	827.25	879.05	934.09	992.58
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	685.50	648.10	570.80	529	740.20	793.18	842.84	895.62	951.70	1,011.29
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	510.40	510.40	438.20	384	621	611.85	650.16	690.87	734.13	780.10
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	387.30	319.90	304.60	355	427.13	453.87	482.29	512.49	544.58	578.68
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-147.40	-121.40	-110.10	-82.30	-117.70	-143.69	-152.69	-162.25	-172.41	-183.21
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 26.47
Beta	1.414
Diluted Shares Outstanding	38.60
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	-25.53
After-tax Cost of Debt	3.34%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	10.192
Total Debt	2,374.80
Total Equity	1,021.74
Total Capital	3,396.54
Debt Weighting	69.92
Equity Weighting	30.08
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Revenue	4,448.10	4,622.80	3,775.80	3,035	4,827.50	5,129.78	5,450.99	5,792.31	6,155	6,540.41
EBITDA	591.80	540.90	279.90	221.90	590.30	533.06	566.44	601.91	639.60	679.65
EBIT	481.20	410.70	143.90	87.60	429.43	362.11	384.79	408.88	434.48	461.69
Tax Rate	20.14%	19.71%	12.05%	84.44%	-25.53%	22.16%	22.16%	22.16%	22.16%	22.16%
EBIAT	384.28	329.76	126.57	13.63	539.08	281.86	299.51	318.27	338.20	359.37
Depreciation	110.60	130.20	136	134.30	160.87	170.95	181.65	193.03	205.11	217.96
Accounts Receivable	-	37.40	77.30	41.80	-211.20	-52.98	-49.67	-52.78	-56.08	-59.59
Inventories	-	-0	72.20	54.20	-237	9.15	-38.31	-40.71	-43.26	-45.97
Accounts Payable	-	-67.40	-15.30	50.40	72.13	26.75	28.42	30.20	32.09	34.10
Capital Expenditure	-147.40	-121.40	-110.10	-82.30	-117.70	-143.69	-152.69	-162.25	-172.41	-183.21
UFCF	347.48	308.55	286.67	212.03	206.18	292.04	268.92	285.76	303.65	322.66
WACC
PV UFCF						277.08	242.07	244.05	246.04	248.06
SUM PV UFCF										1,257.29

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	5.40
Free cash flow (t + 1)	329.12
Terminal Value	9,679.94
Present Value of Terminal Value	7,441.65

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	8,698.95
Net Debt	1,801.80
Equity Value	6,897.15
Shares Outstanding	38.60
Equity Value Per Share	178.68