Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Trinseo PLC (TSE)
$26.47
-0.29 (-1.08%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
Revenue | 4,448.10 | 4,622.80 | 3,775.80 | 3,035 | 4,827.50 | 5,129.78 | 5,450.99 | 5,792.31 | 6,155 | 6,540.41 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | 591.80 | 540.90 | 279.90 | 221.90 | 590.30 | 533.06 | 566.44 | 601.91 | 639.60 | 679.65 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | 481.20 | 410.70 | 143.90 | 87.60 | 429.43 | 362.11 | 384.79 | 408.88 | 434.48 | 461.69 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | 110.60 | 130.20 | 136 | 134.30 | 160.87 | 170.95 | 181.65 | 193.03 | 205.11 | 217.96 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
Total Cash | 432.80 | 452.30 | 456.20 | 828 | 820.80 | 778.50 | 827.25 | 879.05 | 934.09 | 992.58 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | 685.50 | 648.10 | 570.80 | 529 | 740.20 | 793.18 | 842.84 | 895.62 | 951.70 | 1,011.29 |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | 510.40 | 510.40 | 438.20 | 384 | 621 | 611.85 | 650.16 | 690.87 | 734.13 | 780.10 |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 387.30 | 319.90 | 304.60 | 355 | 427.13 | 453.87 | 482.29 | 512.49 | 544.58 | 578.68 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -147.40 | -121.40 | -110.10 | -82.30 | -117.70 | -143.69 | -152.69 | -162.25 | -172.41 | -183.21 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 26.47 |
---|---|
Beta | 1.414 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 38.60 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | -25.53 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 3.34% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 10.192 |
Total Debt | 2,374.80 |
Total Equity | 1,021.74 |
Total Capital | 3,396.54 |
Debt Weighting | 69.92 |
Equity Weighting | 30.08 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
Revenue | 4,448.10 | 4,622.80 | 3,775.80 | 3,035 | 4,827.50 | 5,129.78 | 5,450.99 | 5,792.31 | 6,155 | 6,540.41 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 591.80 | 540.90 | 279.90 | 221.90 | 590.30 | 533.06 | 566.44 | 601.91 | 639.60 | 679.65 |
EBIT | 481.20 | 410.70 | 143.90 | 87.60 | 429.43 | 362.11 | 384.79 | 408.88 | 434.48 | 461.69 |
Tax Rate | 20.14% | 19.71% | 12.05% | 84.44% | -25.53% | 22.16% | 22.16% | 22.16% | 22.16% | 22.16% |
EBIAT | 384.28 | 329.76 | 126.57 | 13.63 | 539.08 | 281.86 | 299.51 | 318.27 | 338.20 | 359.37 |
Depreciation | 110.60 | 130.20 | 136 | 134.30 | 160.87 | 170.95 | 181.65 | 193.03 | 205.11 | 217.96 |
Accounts Receivable | - | 37.40 | 77.30 | 41.80 | -211.20 | -52.98 | -49.67 | -52.78 | -56.08 | -59.59 |
Inventories | - | -0 | 72.20 | 54.20 | -237 | 9.15 | -38.31 | -40.71 | -43.26 | -45.97 |
Accounts Payable | - | -67.40 | -15.30 | 50.40 | 72.13 | 26.75 | 28.42 | 30.20 | 32.09 | 34.10 |
Capital Expenditure | -147.40 | -121.40 | -110.10 | -82.30 | -117.70 | -143.69 | -152.69 | -162.25 | -172.41 | -183.21 |
UFCF | 347.48 | 308.55 | 286.67 | 212.03 | 206.18 | 292.04 | 268.92 | 285.76 | 303.65 | 322.66 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | 277.08 | 242.07 | 244.05 | 246.04 | 248.06 | |||||
SUM PV UFCF | 1,257.29 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 5.40 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | 329.12 |
Terminal Value | 9,679.94 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | 7,441.65 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | 8,698.95 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 1,801.80 |
Equity Value | 6,897.15 |
Shares Outstanding | 38.60 |
Equity Value Per Share | 178.68 |