Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Tree Island Steel Ltd. (TSL.TO)

$3.57

+0.02 (+0.56%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -46.82 | 3.57 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 234.71235.31200.40215.89301.85326.72353.65382.80414.35448.49
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 6.4011.675.6317.53121.8438.5441.7245.1548.8852.90
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 3.068.17-0.6011.4911631.5234.1236.9339.9743.27
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 3.343.496.236.045.847.027.608.238.909.64
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 1.651.280.911.2533.258.699.4010.1811.0111.92
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 26.3024.1324.6824.8238.0537.8240.9344.3147.9651.91
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 59.9981.6255.0346.8177.5188.2695.53103.41111.93121.15
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 18.2722.0218.4017.7727.2828.4930.8333.3736.1239.10
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -6.58-8.54-1.94-2.72-12.13-8.29-8.97-9.71-10.51-11.37
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 3.57
Beta 1.220
Diluted Shares Outstanding 28.77
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 22.48
After-tax Cost of Debt 4.76%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 8.746
Total Debt 41.02
Total Equity 102.72
Total Capital 143.74
Debt Weighting 28.54
Equity Weighting 71.46
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 234.71235.31200.40215.89301.85326.72353.65382.80414.35448.49
EBITDA 6.4011.675.6317.53121.8438.5441.7245.1548.8852.90
EBIT 3.068.17-0.6011.4911631.5234.1236.9339.9743.27
Tax Rate 1,229.66%45.56%0.59%28.50%22.48%265.36%265.36%265.36%265.36%265.36%
EBIAT -34.614.45-0.598.2289.92-52.12-56.41-61.06-66.10-71.54
Depreciation 3.343.496.236.045.847.027.608.238.909.64
Accounts Receivable -2.17-0.55-0.14-13.240.24-3.12-3.37-3.65-3.95
Inventories --21.6326.588.23-30.70-10.75-7.27-7.87-8.52-9.22
Accounts Payable -3.74-3.61-0.639.511.212.352.542.752.98
Capital Expenditure -6.58-8.54-1.94-2.72-12.13-8.29-8.97-9.71-10.51-11.37
UFCF -37.85-16.3126.1118.9849.21-62.69-65.83-71.25-77.12-83.48
WACC
PV UFCF -58.25-56.84-57.18-57.51-57.85
SUM PV UFCF -287.64

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 7.61
Free cash flow (t + 1) -85.15
Terminal Value -1,517.79
Present Value of Terminal Value -1,051.84

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -1,339.48
Net Debt 7.77
Equity Value -1,347.25
Shares Outstanding 28.77
Equity Value Per Share -46.82