Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Tile Shop Holdings, Inc. (TTSH)

$4.31

-0.02 (-0.46%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 4.73 | 4.31 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 344.60357.25340.35325.06370.70378.57386.60394.80403.18411.74
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 52.2546.6932.2037.7147.9947.1248.1249.1550.1951.25
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 26.0218.29-1.346.3820.6114.9915.3115.6315.9616.30
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 26.2428.4033.5531.3427.3832.1432.8233.5134.2334.95
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 6.625.569.109.629.368.8199.199.389.58
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 8.116.636.4611.0910.129.289.479.679.8810.09
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 85.26110.1097.6274.3097.18100.93103.08105.26107.50109.78
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 30.7725.8518.1815.3830.8826.1826.7327.3027.8828.47
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -40.56-35.29-27-1.97-11.07-25.11-25.65-26.19-26.75-27.32
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 4.31
Beta 1.519
Diluted Shares Outstanding 51.09
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 25.96
After-tax Cost of Debt 0.34%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 10.676
Total Debt 143.45
Total Equity 220.18
Total Capital 363.63
Debt Weighting 39.45
Equity Weighting 60.55
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 344.60357.25340.35325.06370.70378.57386.60394.80403.18411.74
EBITDA 52.2546.6932.2037.7147.9947.1248.1249.1550.1951.25
EBIT 26.0218.29-1.346.3820.6114.9915.3115.6315.9616.30
Tax Rate 55.22%33.06%13.12%-33.96%25.96%18.68%18.68%18.68%18.68%18.68%
EBIAT 11.6512.24-1.178.5415.2612.1912.4512.7112.9813.26
Depreciation 26.2428.4033.5531.3427.3832.1432.8233.5134.2334.95
Accounts Receivable -1.480.17-4.630.970.85-0.20-0.20-0.21-0.21
Inventories --24.8412.4823.32-22.88-3.76-2.14-2.19-2.23-2.28
Accounts Payable --4.92-7.67-2.8015.50-4.710.560.570.580.59
Capital Expenditure -40.56-35.29-27-1.97-11.07-25.11-25.65-26.19-26.75-27.32
UFCF -2.67-22.9310.3553.8025.1611.5917.8318.2118.6018.99
WACC
PV UFCF 10.8715.6915.0314.4013.80
SUM PV UFCF 69.80

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 6.60
Free cash flow (t + 1) 19.37
Terminal Value 421.16
Present Value of Terminal Value 305.96

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 375.76
Net Debt 134.09
Equity Value 241.67
Shares Outstanding 51.09
Equity Value Per Share 4.73