Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Mammoth Energy Services, Inc. (TUSK)
$3.95
+0.06 (+1.54%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 1,690.08 | 625.01 | 625.01 | 228.96 | 362.09 | 279.72 | 216.09 | 166.93 | 128.96 | 99.62 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 512.29 | 30.87 | 9.15 | -39.41 | 88.76 | 24.62 | 19.02 | 14.70 | 11.35 | 8.77 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 392.41 | -86.17 | -86.17 | -117.89 | 24.49 | -27.46 | -21.21 | -16.39 | -12.66 | -9.78 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 119.88 | 117.03 | 95.32 | 78.47 | 64.27 | 52.08 | 40.23 | 31.08 | 24.01 | 18.55 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 67.62 | 5.87 | 16.57 | 11.66 | 17.28 | 9.77 | 7.55 | 5.83 | 4.50 | 3.48 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 348.62 | 370.58 | 393.11 | 407.64 | 456.46 | 250.02 | 193.15 | 149.21 | 115.27 | 89.05 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 21.30 | 17.48 | 12.68 | 4.65 | 7.35 | 5.68 | 4.38 | 3.39 | 2.62 | 2.02 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 68.84 | 39.22 | 40.32 | 37.56 | 47.39 | 25.90 | 20.01 | 15.46 | 11.94 | 9.22 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -191.94 | -35.76 | -6.76 | -5.84 | -12.74 | -13.56 | -10.47 | -8.09 | -6.25 | -4.83 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 3.95 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.754 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 47.17 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 104.77 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | -0.58% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 11.970 |
| Total Debt | 93.88 |
| Total Equity | 186.34 |
| Total Capital | 280.22 |
| Debt Weighting | 33.50 |
| Equity Weighting | 66.50 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 1,690.08 | 625.01 | 625.01 | 228.96 | 362.09 | 279.72 | 216.09 | 166.93 | 128.96 | 99.62 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 512.29 | 30.87 | 9.15 | -39.41 | 88.76 | 24.62 | 19.02 | 14.70 | 11.35 | 8.77 |
| EBIT | 392.41 | -86.17 | -86.17 | -117.89 | 24.49 | -27.46 | -21.21 | -16.39 | -12.66 | -9.78 |
| Tax Rate | 39.38% | 13.26% | 13.26% | 18.39% | 104.77% | 37.81% | 37.81% | 37.81% | 37.81% | 37.81% |
| EBIAT | 237.90 | -74.74 | -74.74 | -96.20 | -1.17 | -17.07 | -13.19 | -10.19 | -7.87 | -6.08 |
| Depreciation | 119.88 | 117.03 | 95.32 | 78.47 | 64.27 | 52.08 | 40.23 | 31.08 | 24.01 | 18.55 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -21.95 | -22.54 | -14.53 | -48.83 | 206.44 | 56.87 | 43.94 | 33.94 | 26.22 |
| Inventories | - | 3.82 | 4.80 | 8.04 | -2.70 | 1.67 | 1.29 | 1 | 0.77 | 0.60 |
| Accounts Payable | - | -29.62 | 1.10 | -2.76 | 9.83 | -21.49 | -5.89 | -4.55 | -3.52 | -2.72 |
| Capital Expenditure | -191.94 | -35.76 | -6.76 | -5.84 | -12.74 | -13.56 | -10.47 | -8.09 | -6.25 | -4.83 |
| UFCF | 165.83 | -41.23 | -2.82 | -32.82 | 8.67 | 208.07 | 68.85 | 53.18 | 41.09 | 31.74 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 193.09 | 59.29 | 42.50 | 30.47 | 21.84 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 347.19 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 7.76 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 32.37 |
| Terminal Value | 562.06 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 386.81 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 734 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 76.60 |
| Equity Value | 657.40 |
| Shares Outstanding | 47.17 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 13.94 |