Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Tivity Health, Inc. (TVTY)

$32.5

0.00 (0.00%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -5.63 | 32.5 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 556.94606.301,131.16437.71481.25534.28593.14658.50731.05811.60
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 126.24139.25-199.07-116.74177.3240.8345.3350.3255.8762.02
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 122.88134.58-249.84-162.62166.0220.8623.1525.7128.5431.68
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 3.364.6750.7845.8911.3019.9722.1724.6227.3330.34
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 28.441.932.49100.38109.8854.9460.9967.7175.1783.45
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 55.1567.8697.6036.9865.8255.4061.5168.2875.8184.16
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories --36.4114.0915.4917.2019.0921.1923.5326.12
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 26.8029.1046.4819.7425.3325.1027.8730.9434.3538.14
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -5.91-9.05-24.71-15.53-14.75-12.13-13.47-14.95-16.60-18.42
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 32.5
Beta 2.141
Diluted Shares Outstanding 49.22
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 21.54
After-tax Cost of Debt 6.96%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 13.619
Total Debt 392
Total Equity 1,599.55
Total Capital 1,991.55
Debt Weighting 19.68
Equity Weighting 80.32
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 556.94606.301,131.16437.71481.25534.28593.14658.50731.05811.60
EBITDA 126.24139.25-199.07-116.74177.3240.8345.3350.3255.8762.02
EBIT 122.88134.58-249.84-162.62166.0220.8623.1525.7128.5431.68
Tax Rate 39.19%20.92%12.13%400.58%21.54%98.87%98.87%98.87%98.87%98.87%
EBIAT 74.72106.42-219.54488.82130.260.230.260.290.320.36
Depreciation 3.364.6750.7845.8911.3019.9722.1724.6227.3330.34
Accounts Receivable --12.71-29.7460.62-28.8510.42-6.10-6.78-7.52-8.35
Inventories ---22.32-1.40-1.71-1.89-2.10-2.34-2.59
Accounts Payable -2.3017.38-26.745.58-0.222.773.073.413.78
Capital Expenditure -5.91-9.05-24.71-15.53-14.75-12.13-13.47-14.95-16.60-18.42
UFCF 72.1791.63-205.84575.38102.1416.573.744.154.615.11
WACC
PV UFCF 14.762.962.932.892.86
SUM PV UFCF 26.40

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 12.31
Free cash flow (t + 1) 5.22
Terminal Value 50.58
Present Value of Terminal Value 28.31

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 54.71
Net Debt 331.87
Equity Value -277.15
Shares Outstanding 49.22
Equity Value Per Share -5.63