Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

United Fire Group, Inc. (UFCS)

$29.18

-0.31 (-1.05%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -35.37 | 29.18 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 1,052.741,070.171,201.161,068.631,066.191,073.211,080.281,087.401,094.561,101.77
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 26.3821.4228.07-162.86106.603.443.463.483.513.53
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 21.8016.2516.88-169.51100.03-3.19-3.21-3.23-3.25-3.28
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 4.575.1711.196.666.576.636.676.726.766.81
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 95.7464.63120.9088.12132.1098.3899.0399.68100.34101
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 397.74423.20449.19544.03441.49444.39447.32450.27453.23456.22
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories ----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable ----------
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -17.16-33.05-32.43-18.86-13.98-22.52-22.67-22.82-22.97-23.12
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 29.18
Beta 0.047
Diluted Shares Outstanding 25.06
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 16.78
After-tax Cost of Debt 5.30%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 3.920
Total Debt 50
Total Equity 731.12
Total Capital 781.12
Debt Weighting 6.40
Equity Weighting 93.60
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 1,052.741,070.171,201.161,068.631,066.191,073.211,080.281,087.401,094.561,101.77
EBITDA 26.3821.4228.07-162.86106.603.443.463.483.513.53
EBIT 21.8016.2516.88-169.51100.03-3.19-3.21-3.23-3.25-3.28
Tax Rate -226.03%402.19%12.20%33.51%16.78%47.73%47.73%47.73%47.73%47.73%
EBIAT 71.08-49.0914.82-112.7183.25-1.67-1.68-1.69-1.70-1.71
Depreciation 4.575.1711.196.666.576.636.676.726.766.81
Accounts Receivable --25.46-25.99-94.84102.54-2.91-2.93-2.95-2.97-2.99
Inventories ----------
Accounts Payable ----------
Capital Expenditure -17.16-33.05-32.43-18.86-13.98-22.52-22.67-22.82-22.97-23.12
UFCF 58.50-102.43-32.41-219.75178.38-20.47-20.61-20.74-20.88-21.01
WACC
PV UFCF -19.68-19.05-18.43-17.84-17.26
SUM PV UFCF -92.26

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 4.01
Free cash flow (t + 1) -21.44
Terminal Value -1,066.43
Present Value of Terminal Value -876.11

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -968.37
Net Debt -82.10
Equity Value -886.27
Shares Outstanding 25.06
Equity Value Per Share -35.37