Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Union Pacific Corporation (UNP)

$194.82

-4.38 (-2.20%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 121.95 | 194.82 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 21,24022,83221,70819,53321,80422,031.8222,262.0322,494.6422,729.6822,967.18
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 10,45610,80211,01310,33111,84311,213.1811,330.3411,448.7311,568.3511,689.23
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 8,3518,6118,7978,1219,6358,959.079,052.689,147.279,242.859,339.42
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 2,1052,1912,2162,2102,2082,254.112,277.662,301.462,325.512,349.81
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 1,3651,3338911,8591,0061,343.961,3581,372.191,386.531,401.02
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 1,4931,7551,5951,5051,7221,659.691,677.041,694.561,712.261,730.16
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 749742751638621720.45727.97735.58743.27751.03
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 1,013872749612752820.51829.08837.74846.49855.34
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -3,238-3,437-3,453-2,927-2,936-3,289.58-3,323.95-3,358.68-3,393.78-3,429.24
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 194.82
Beta 1.138
Diluted Shares Outstanding 679.10
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 23.06
After-tax Cost of Debt 2.82%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 9.175
Total Debt 31,488
Total Equity 132,302.26
Total Capital 163,790.26
Debt Weighting 19.22
Equity Weighting 80.78
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 21,24022,83221,70819,53321,80422,031.8222,262.0322,494.6422,729.6822,967.18
EBITDA 10,45610,80211,01310,33111,84311,213.1811,330.3411,448.7311,568.3511,689.23
EBIT 8,3518,6118,7978,1219,6358,959.079,052.689,147.279,242.859,339.42
Tax Rate -40.36%22.93%23.60%23.37%23.06%10.52%10.52%10.52%10.52%10.52%
EBIAT 11,721.166,636.516,721.246,223.397,413.208,016.648,100.418,185.058,270.578,356.99
Depreciation 2,1052,1912,2162,2102,2082,254.112,277.662,301.462,325.512,349.81
Accounts Receivable --26216090-21762.31-17.34-17.52-17.71-17.89
Inventories -7-911317-99.45-7.53-7.61-7.69-7.77
Accounts Payable --141-123-13714068.518.578.668.758.84
Capital Expenditure -3,238-3,437-3,453-2,927-2,936-3,289.58-3,323.95-3,358.68-3,393.78-3,429.24
UFCF 10,588.164,994.515,512.245,572.396,625.207,012.547,037.827,111.367,185.667,260.75
WACC
PV UFCF 6,496.106,039.395,653.075,291.474,953
SUM PV UFCF 28,433.03

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 7.95
Free cash flow (t + 1) 7,405.96
Terminal Value 124,469.92
Present Value of Terminal Value 84,908.50

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 113,341.53
Net Debt 30,528
Equity Value 82,813.53
Shares Outstanding 679.10
Equity Value Per Share 121.95