Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

United States Steel Corporation (USX1.DE)

20.645 €

-0.30 (-1.46%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 52.29 | 20.645 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 14,17812,9379,74120,27521,06525,203.2230,154.3836,078.2143,165.7751,645.68
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 1,501306-1,0275,1354,1492,390.882,860.573,422.524,094.884,899.32
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 980-310-1,437.894,279.783,260.451,327.781,588.621,900.702,274.092,720.84
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 521616410.89855.22888.551,063.101,271.951,521.821,820.782,178.48
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 1,0007491,9852,5223,5043,140.013,756.864,494.895,377.926,434.41
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 1,6591,1779942,0891,6352,473.372,959.263,540.614,236.165,068.35
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 2,0921,7851,4022,2102,3593,278.663,922.754,693.375,615.396,718.53
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 2,5352,0541,8842,9083,0164,121.134,930.735,899.377,058.308,444.90
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -1,001-1,252-725-863-1,769-1,856.72-2,221.47-2,657.88-3,180.02-3,804.73
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 20.645
Beta 2.140
Diluted Shares Outstanding 196.72
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 22.55
After-tax Cost of Debt 1.88%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 13.844
Total Debt 4,082
Total Equity 4,061.31
Total Capital 8,143.31
Debt Weighting 50.13
Equity Weighting 49.87
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 14,17812,9379,74120,27521,06525,203.2230,154.3836,078.2143,165.7751,645.68
EBITDA 1,501306-1,0275,1354,1492,390.882,860.573,422.524,094.884,899.32
EBIT 980-310-1,437.894,279.783,260.451,327.781,588.621,900.702,274.092,720.84
Tax Rate -37.32%-39.38%10.86%3.91%22.55%-7.87%-7.87%-7.87%-7.87%-7.87%
EBIAT 1,345.69-432.08-1,281.674,112.292,525.131,432.311,713.692,050.342,453.132,935.05
Depreciation 521616410.89855.22888.551,063.101,271.951,521.821,820.782,178.48
Accounts Receivable -482183-1,095454-838.37-485.89-581.35-695.55-832.19
Inventories -307383-808-149-919.66-644.09-770.62-922.01-1,103.14
Accounts Payable --481-1701,0241081,105.13809.60968.641,158.931,386.60
Capital Expenditure -1,001-1,252-725-863-1,769-1,856.72-2,221.47-2,657.88-3,180.02-3,804.73
UFCF 865.69-760.08-1,199.783,225.512,057.67-14.20443.78530.96635.26760.06
WACC
PV UFCF -13.17381.53423.25469.54520.89
SUM PV UFCF 1,782.05

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 7.85
Free cash flow (t + 1) 775.26
Terminal Value 13,252.35
Present Value of Terminal Value 9,082.22

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 10,864.27
Net Debt 578
Equity Value 10,286.27
Shares Outstanding 196.72
Equity Value Per Share 52.29