Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
United States Steel Corporation (USX1.DE)
20.645 €
-0.30 (-1.46%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 14,178 | 12,937 | 9,741 | 20,275 | 21,065 | 25,203.22 | 30,154.38 | 36,078.21 | 43,165.77 | 51,645.68 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | 1,501 | 306 | -1,027 | 5,135 | 4,149 | 2,390.88 | 2,860.57 | 3,422.52 | 4,094.88 | 4,899.32 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | 980 | -310 | -1,437.89 | 4,279.78 | 3,260.45 | 1,327.78 | 1,588.62 | 1,900.70 | 2,274.09 | 2,720.84 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | 521 | 616 | 410.89 | 855.22 | 888.55 | 1,063.10 | 1,271.95 | 1,521.82 | 1,820.78 | 2,178.48 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Total Cash | 1,000 | 749 | 1,985 | 2,522 | 3,504 | 3,140.01 | 3,756.86 | 4,494.89 | 5,377.92 | 6,434.41 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | 1,659 | 1,177 | 994 | 2,089 | 1,635 | 2,473.37 | 2,959.26 | 3,540.61 | 4,236.16 | 5,068.35 |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | 2,092 | 1,785 | 1,402 | 2,210 | 2,359 | 3,278.66 | 3,922.75 | 4,693.37 | 5,615.39 | 6,718.53 |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 2,535 | 2,054 | 1,884 | 2,908 | 3,016 | 4,121.13 | 4,930.73 | 5,899.37 | 7,058.30 | 8,444.90 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -1,001 | -1,252 | -725 | -863 | -1,769 | -1,856.72 | -2,221.47 | -2,657.88 | -3,180.02 | -3,804.73 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 20.645 |
---|---|
Beta | 2.140 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 196.72 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 22.55 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 1.88% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 13.844 |
Total Debt | 4,082 |
Total Equity | 4,061.31 |
Total Capital | 8,143.31 |
Debt Weighting | 50.13 |
Equity Weighting | 49.87 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 14,178 | 12,937 | 9,741 | 20,275 | 21,065 | 25,203.22 | 30,154.38 | 36,078.21 | 43,165.77 | 51,645.68 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 1,501 | 306 | -1,027 | 5,135 | 4,149 | 2,390.88 | 2,860.57 | 3,422.52 | 4,094.88 | 4,899.32 |
EBIT | 980 | -310 | -1,437.89 | 4,279.78 | 3,260.45 | 1,327.78 | 1,588.62 | 1,900.70 | 2,274.09 | 2,720.84 |
Tax Rate | -37.32% | -39.38% | 10.86% | 3.91% | 22.55% | -7.87% | -7.87% | -7.87% | -7.87% | -7.87% |
EBIAT | 1,345.69 | -432.08 | -1,281.67 | 4,112.29 | 2,525.13 | 1,432.31 | 1,713.69 | 2,050.34 | 2,453.13 | 2,935.05 |
Depreciation | 521 | 616 | 410.89 | 855.22 | 888.55 | 1,063.10 | 1,271.95 | 1,521.82 | 1,820.78 | 2,178.48 |
Accounts Receivable | - | 482 | 183 | -1,095 | 454 | -838.37 | -485.89 | -581.35 | -695.55 | -832.19 |
Inventories | - | 307 | 383 | -808 | -149 | -919.66 | -644.09 | -770.62 | -922.01 | -1,103.14 |
Accounts Payable | - | -481 | -170 | 1,024 | 108 | 1,105.13 | 809.60 | 968.64 | 1,158.93 | 1,386.60 |
Capital Expenditure | -1,001 | -1,252 | -725 | -863 | -1,769 | -1,856.72 | -2,221.47 | -2,657.88 | -3,180.02 | -3,804.73 |
UFCF | 865.69 | -760.08 | -1,199.78 | 3,225.51 | 2,057.67 | -14.20 | 443.78 | 530.96 | 635.26 | 760.06 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | -13.17 | 381.53 | 423.25 | 469.54 | 520.89 | |||||
SUM PV UFCF | 1,782.05 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 7.85 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | 775.26 |
Terminal Value | 13,252.35 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | 9,082.22 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | 10,864.27 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 578 |
Equity Value | 10,286.27 |
Shares Outstanding | 196.72 |
Equity Value Per Share | 52.29 |