Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

United States Steel Corporation (USX1.DE)

20.645 €

-0.30 (-1.46%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 52.29 | 20.645 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	14,178	12,937	9,741	20,275	21,065	25,203.22	30,154.38	36,078.21	43,165.77	51,645.68
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	1,501	306	-1,027	5,135	4,149	2,390.88	2,860.57	3,422.52	4,094.88	4,899.32
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	980	-310	-1,437.89	4,279.78	3,260.45	1,327.78	1,588.62	1,900.70	2,274.09	2,720.84
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	521	616	410.89	855.22	888.55	1,063.10	1,271.95	1,521.82	1,820.78	2,178.48
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Total Cash	1,000	749	1,985	2,522	3,504	3,140.01	3,756.86	4,494.89	5,377.92	6,434.41
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	1,659	1,177	994	2,089	1,635	2,473.37	2,959.26	3,540.61	4,236.16	5,068.35
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	2,092	1,785	1,402	2,210	2,359	3,278.66	3,922.75	4,693.37	5,615.39	6,718.53
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	2,535	2,054	1,884	2,908	3,016	4,121.13	4,930.73	5,899.37	7,058.30	8,444.90
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-1,001	-1,252	-725	-863	-1,769	-1,856.72	-2,221.47	-2,657.88	-3,180.02	-3,804.73
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 20.645
Beta	2.140
Diluted Shares Outstanding	196.72
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	22.55
After-tax Cost of Debt	1.88%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	13.844
Total Debt	4,082
Total Equity	4,061.31
Total Capital	8,143.31
Debt Weighting	50.13
Equity Weighting	49.87
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	14,178	12,937	9,741	20,275	21,065	25,203.22	30,154.38	36,078.21	43,165.77	51,645.68
EBITDA	1,501	306	-1,027	5,135	4,149	2,390.88	2,860.57	3,422.52	4,094.88	4,899.32
EBIT	980	-310	-1,437.89	4,279.78	3,260.45	1,327.78	1,588.62	1,900.70	2,274.09	2,720.84
Tax Rate	-37.32%	-39.38%	10.86%	3.91%	22.55%	-7.87%	-7.87%	-7.87%	-7.87%	-7.87%
EBIAT	1,345.69	-432.08	-1,281.67	4,112.29	2,525.13	1,432.31	1,713.69	2,050.34	2,453.13	2,935.05
Depreciation	521	616	410.89	855.22	888.55	1,063.10	1,271.95	1,521.82	1,820.78	2,178.48
Accounts Receivable	-	482	183	-1,095	454	-838.37	-485.89	-581.35	-695.55	-832.19
Inventories	-	307	383	-808	-149	-919.66	-644.09	-770.62	-922.01	-1,103.14
Accounts Payable	-	-481	-170	1,024	108	1,105.13	809.60	968.64	1,158.93	1,386.60
Capital Expenditure	-1,001	-1,252	-725	-863	-1,769	-1,856.72	-2,221.47	-2,657.88	-3,180.02	-3,804.73
UFCF	865.69	-760.08	-1,199.78	3,225.51	2,057.67	-14.20	443.78	530.96	635.26	760.06
WACC
PV UFCF						-13.17	381.53	423.25	469.54	520.89
SUM PV UFCF										1,782.05

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	7.85
Free cash flow (t + 1)	775.26
Terminal Value	13,252.35
Present Value of Terminal Value	9,082.22

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	10,864.27
Net Debt	578
Equity Value	10,286.27
Shares Outstanding	196.72
Equity Value Per Share	52.29