Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

United States Steel Corporation (USX1.DE)

30.235 €

+0.47 (+1.58%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 75.28 | 30.235 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	14,178	12,937	9,741	20,275	21,065	25,203.22	30,154.38	36,078.21	43,165.77	51,645.68
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	1,534	855	-180	5,232	4,100	3,067.20	3,669.75	4,390.68	5,253.22	6,285.22
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	1,013	379.60	-537.95	4,486.95	3,325.92	2,141.06	2,561.67	3,064.91	3,667.01	4,387.39
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	521	475.40	357.95	745.05	774.08	926.14	1,108.09	1,325.77	1,586.22	1,897.83
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Total Cash	1,000	749	1,985	2,522	3,504	3,140.01	3,756.86	4,494.89	5,377.92	6,434.41
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	1,659	1,177	994	2,089	1,635	2,473.37	2,959.26	3,540.61	4,236.16	5,068.35
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	2,092	1,785	1,402	2,210	2,359	3,278.66	3,922.75	4,693.37	5,615.39	6,718.53
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	2,535	2,054	1,884	2,908	3,016	4,121.13	4,930.73	5,899.37	7,058.30	8,444.90
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-1,001	-1,252	-725	-863	-1,769	-1,856.72	-2,221.47	-2,657.88	-3,180.02	-3,804.73
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 30.235
Beta	2.146
Diluted Shares Outstanding	276.96
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	22.55
After-tax Cost of Debt	3.02%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	14.672
Total Debt	4,082
Total Equity	8,373.98
Total Capital	12,455.98
Debt Weighting	32.77
Equity Weighting	67.23
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	14,178	12,937	9,741	20,275	21,065	25,203.22	30,154.38	36,078.21	43,165.77	51,645.68
EBITDA	1,534	855	-180	5,232	4,100	3,067.20	3,669.75	4,390.68	5,253.22	6,285.22
EBIT	1,013	379.60	-537.95	4,486.95	3,325.92	2,141.06	2,561.67	3,064.91	3,667.01	4,387.39
Tax Rate	-37.32%	-42.04%	10.86%	3.91%	22.55%	-8.40%	-8.40%	-8.40%	-8.40%	-8.40%
EBIAT	1,391	539.17	-479.51	4,311.36	2,575.83	2,320.99	2,776.95	3,322.48	3,975.18	4,756.10
Depreciation	521	475.40	357.95	745.05	774.08	926.14	1,108.09	1,325.77	1,586.22	1,897.83
Accounts Receivable	-	482	183	-1,095	454	-838.37	-485.89	-581.35	-695.55	-832.19
Inventories	-	307	383	-808	-149	-919.66	-644.09	-770.62	-922.01	-1,103.14
Accounts Payable	-	-481	-170	1,024	108	1,105.13	809.60	968.64	1,158.93	1,386.60
Capital Expenditure	-1,001	-1,252	-725	-863	-1,769	-1,856.72	-2,221.47	-2,657.88	-3,180.02	-3,804.73
UFCF	911	70.57	-450.55	3,314.41	1,993.91	737.52	1,343.17	1,607.04	1,922.74	2,300.47
WACC
PV UFCF						665.33	1,093.10	1,179.83	1,273.44	1,374.48
SUM PV UFCF										5,586.19

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	10.85
Free cash flow (t + 1)	2,346.48
Terminal Value	26,513.85
Present Value of Terminal Value	15,841.43

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	21,427.62
Net Debt	578
Equity Value	20,849.62
Shares Outstanding	276.96
Equity Value Per Share	75.28