Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
United States Steel Corporation (USX1.DE)
30.235 €
+0.47 (+1.58%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 14,178 | 12,937 | 9,741 | 20,275 | 21,065 | 25,203.22 | 30,154.38 | 36,078.21 | 43,165.77 | 51,645.68 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | 1,534 | 855 | -180 | 5,232 | 4,100 | 3,067.20 | 3,669.75 | 4,390.68 | 5,253.22 | 6,285.22 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | 1,013 | 379.60 | -537.95 | 4,486.95 | 3,325.92 | 2,141.06 | 2,561.67 | 3,064.91 | 3,667.01 | 4,387.39 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | 521 | 475.40 | 357.95 | 745.05 | 774.08 | 926.14 | 1,108.09 | 1,325.77 | 1,586.22 | 1,897.83 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Total Cash | 1,000 | 749 | 1,985 | 2,522 | 3,504 | 3,140.01 | 3,756.86 | 4,494.89 | 5,377.92 | 6,434.41 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | 1,659 | 1,177 | 994 | 2,089 | 1,635 | 2,473.37 | 2,959.26 | 3,540.61 | 4,236.16 | 5,068.35 |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | 2,092 | 1,785 | 1,402 | 2,210 | 2,359 | 3,278.66 | 3,922.75 | 4,693.37 | 5,615.39 | 6,718.53 |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 2,535 | 2,054 | 1,884 | 2,908 | 3,016 | 4,121.13 | 4,930.73 | 5,899.37 | 7,058.30 | 8,444.90 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -1,001 | -1,252 | -725 | -863 | -1,769 | -1,856.72 | -2,221.47 | -2,657.88 | -3,180.02 | -3,804.73 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 30.235 |
---|---|
Beta | 2.146 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 276.96 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 22.55 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 3.02% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 14.672 |
Total Debt | 4,082 |
Total Equity | 8,373.98 |
Total Capital | 12,455.98 |
Debt Weighting | 32.77 |
Equity Weighting | 67.23 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 14,178 | 12,937 | 9,741 | 20,275 | 21,065 | 25,203.22 | 30,154.38 | 36,078.21 | 43,165.77 | 51,645.68 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 1,534 | 855 | -180 | 5,232 | 4,100 | 3,067.20 | 3,669.75 | 4,390.68 | 5,253.22 | 6,285.22 |
EBIT | 1,013 | 379.60 | -537.95 | 4,486.95 | 3,325.92 | 2,141.06 | 2,561.67 | 3,064.91 | 3,667.01 | 4,387.39 |
Tax Rate | -37.32% | -42.04% | 10.86% | 3.91% | 22.55% | -8.40% | -8.40% | -8.40% | -8.40% | -8.40% |
EBIAT | 1,391 | 539.17 | -479.51 | 4,311.36 | 2,575.83 | 2,320.99 | 2,776.95 | 3,322.48 | 3,975.18 | 4,756.10 |
Depreciation | 521 | 475.40 | 357.95 | 745.05 | 774.08 | 926.14 | 1,108.09 | 1,325.77 | 1,586.22 | 1,897.83 |
Accounts Receivable | - | 482 | 183 | -1,095 | 454 | -838.37 | -485.89 | -581.35 | -695.55 | -832.19 |
Inventories | - | 307 | 383 | -808 | -149 | -919.66 | -644.09 | -770.62 | -922.01 | -1,103.14 |
Accounts Payable | - | -481 | -170 | 1,024 | 108 | 1,105.13 | 809.60 | 968.64 | 1,158.93 | 1,386.60 |
Capital Expenditure | -1,001 | -1,252 | -725 | -863 | -1,769 | -1,856.72 | -2,221.47 | -2,657.88 | -3,180.02 | -3,804.73 |
UFCF | 911 | 70.57 | -450.55 | 3,314.41 | 1,993.91 | 737.52 | 1,343.17 | 1,607.04 | 1,922.74 | 2,300.47 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | 665.33 | 1,093.10 | 1,179.83 | 1,273.44 | 1,374.48 | |||||
SUM PV UFCF | 5,586.19 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 10.85 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | 2,346.48 |
Terminal Value | 26,513.85 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | 15,841.43 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | 21,427.62 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 578 |
Equity Value | 20,849.62 |
Shares Outstanding | 276.96 |
Equity Value Per Share | 75.28 |