Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

United States Steel Corporation (USX1.DE)

30.235 €

+0.47 (+1.58%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 75.28 | 30.235 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 14,17812,9379,74120,27521,06525,203.2230,154.3836,078.2143,165.7751,645.68
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 1,534855-1805,2324,1003,067.203,669.754,390.685,253.226,285.22
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 1,013379.60-537.954,486.953,325.922,141.062,561.673,064.913,667.014,387.39
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 521475.40357.95745.05774.08926.141,108.091,325.771,586.221,897.83
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 1,0007491,9852,5223,5043,140.013,756.864,494.895,377.926,434.41
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 1,6591,1779942,0891,6352,473.372,959.263,540.614,236.165,068.35
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 2,0921,7851,4022,2102,3593,278.663,922.754,693.375,615.396,718.53
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 2,5352,0541,8842,9083,0164,121.134,930.735,899.377,058.308,444.90
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -1,001-1,252-725-863-1,769-1,856.72-2,221.47-2,657.88-3,180.02-3,804.73
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 30.235
Beta 2.146
Diluted Shares Outstanding 276.96
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 22.55
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.02%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 14.672
Total Debt 4,082
Total Equity 8,373.98
Total Capital 12,455.98
Debt Weighting 32.77
Equity Weighting 67.23
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 14,17812,9379,74120,27521,06525,203.2230,154.3836,078.2143,165.7751,645.68
EBITDA 1,534855-1805,2324,1003,067.203,669.754,390.685,253.226,285.22
EBIT 1,013379.60-537.954,486.953,325.922,141.062,561.673,064.913,667.014,387.39
Tax Rate -37.32%-42.04%10.86%3.91%22.55%-8.40%-8.40%-8.40%-8.40%-8.40%
EBIAT 1,391539.17-479.514,311.362,575.832,320.992,776.953,322.483,975.184,756.10
Depreciation 521475.40357.95745.05774.08926.141,108.091,325.771,586.221,897.83
Accounts Receivable -482183-1,095454-838.37-485.89-581.35-695.55-832.19
Inventories -307383-808-149-919.66-644.09-770.62-922.01-1,103.14
Accounts Payable --481-1701,0241081,105.13809.60968.641,158.931,386.60
Capital Expenditure -1,001-1,252-725-863-1,769-1,856.72-2,221.47-2,657.88-3,180.02-3,804.73
UFCF 91170.57-450.553,314.411,993.91737.521,343.171,607.041,922.742,300.47
WACC
PV UFCF 665.331,093.101,179.831,273.441,374.48
SUM PV UFCF 5,586.19

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 10.85
Free cash flow (t + 1) 2,346.48
Terminal Value 26,513.85
Present Value of Terminal Value 15,841.43

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 21,427.62
Net Debt 578
Equity Value 20,849.62
Shares Outstanding 276.96
Equity Value Per Share 75.28