Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Virginia National Bankshares Corpor... (VABK)

$39.14

-0.26 (-0.66%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 398.07 | 39.14 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 26.9728.2227.2830.2655.4568.6985.08105.38130.53161.68
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 13.4414.5513.6915.3516.6631.9239.5348.9660.6575.12
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 12.1913.3312.4913.3915.2028.8335.7144.2354.7967.86
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 1.251.231.201.961.463.083.824.735.867.26
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 78.8973.13128.95182.20660.19386.95479.29593.67735.34910.82
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 6.425.879.169.8718.4919.7924.5230.3737.6246.59
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories ----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 1.731.525.315.053.967.579.3711.6114.3817.81
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -0.46-0.85-0.19-0.20-0.84-1.04-1.29-1.60-1.98-2.45
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 39.14
Beta 0.570
Diluted Shares Outstanding 2.71
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 16.01
After-tax Cost of Debt 26.33%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 6.224
Total Debt 10.47
Total Equity 106.01
Total Capital 116.49
Debt Weighting 8.99
Equity Weighting 91.01
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 26.9728.2227.2830.2655.4568.6985.08105.38130.53161.68
EBITDA 13.4414.5513.6915.3516.6631.9239.5348.9660.6575.12
EBIT 12.1913.3312.4913.3915.2028.8335.7144.2354.7967.86
Tax Rate 40.18%19.63%18.59%20.56%16.01%22.99%22.99%22.99%22.99%22.99%
EBIAT 7.2910.7110.1710.6412.7722.2027.5034.0642.1952.26
Depreciation 1.251.231.201.961.463.083.824.735.867.26
Accounts Receivable -0.55-3.29-0.71-8.62-1.31-4.72-5.85-7.25-8.98
Inventories ----------
Accounts Payable --0.203.78-0.26-1.093.611.812.242.773.43
Capital Expenditure -0.46-0.85-0.19-0.20-0.84-1.04-1.29-1.60-1.98-2.45
UFCF 8.0811.4411.6711.423.6726.5527.1133.5841.6051.52
WACC
PV UFCF 24.5723.2326.6430.5435.02
SUM PV UFCF 139.99

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 8.03
Free cash flow (t + 1) 52.55
Terminal Value 871.50
Present Value of Terminal Value 592.31

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 732.30
Net Debt -345.90
Equity Value 1,078.20
Shares Outstanding 2.71
Equity Value Per Share 398.07