Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Virginia National Bankshares Corpor... (VABK)
$39.14
-0.26 (-0.66%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 26.97 | 28.22 | 27.28 | 30.26 | 55.45 | 68.69 | 85.08 | 105.38 | 130.53 | 161.68 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 13.44 | 14.55 | 13.69 | 15.35 | 16.66 | 31.92 | 39.53 | 48.96 | 60.65 | 75.12 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 12.19 | 13.33 | 12.49 | 13.39 | 15.20 | 28.83 | 35.71 | 44.23 | 54.79 | 67.86 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 1.25 | 1.23 | 1.20 | 1.96 | 1.46 | 3.08 | 3.82 | 4.73 | 5.86 | 7.26 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Total Cash | 78.89 | 73.13 | 128.95 | 182.20 | 660.19 | 386.95 | 479.29 | 593.67 | 735.34 | 910.82 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 6.42 | 5.87 | 9.16 | 9.87 | 18.49 | 19.79 | 24.52 | 30.37 | 37.62 | 46.59 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 1.73 | 1.52 | 5.31 | 5.05 | 3.96 | 7.57 | 9.37 | 11.61 | 14.38 | 17.81 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -0.46 | -0.85 | -0.19 | -0.20 | -0.84 | -1.04 | -1.29 | -1.60 | -1.98 | -2.45 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 39.14 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.570 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 2.71 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 16.01 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 26.33% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 6.224 |
| Total Debt | 10.47 |
| Total Equity | 106.01 |
| Total Capital | 116.49 |
| Debt Weighting | 8.99 |
| Equity Weighting | 91.01 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 26.97 | 28.22 | 27.28 | 30.26 | 55.45 | 68.69 | 85.08 | 105.38 | 130.53 | 161.68 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 13.44 | 14.55 | 13.69 | 15.35 | 16.66 | 31.92 | 39.53 | 48.96 | 60.65 | 75.12 |
| EBIT | 12.19 | 13.33 | 12.49 | 13.39 | 15.20 | 28.83 | 35.71 | 44.23 | 54.79 | 67.86 |
| Tax Rate | 40.18% | 19.63% | 18.59% | 20.56% | 16.01% | 22.99% | 22.99% | 22.99% | 22.99% | 22.99% |
| EBIAT | 7.29 | 10.71 | 10.17 | 10.64 | 12.77 | 22.20 | 27.50 | 34.06 | 42.19 | 52.26 |
| Depreciation | 1.25 | 1.23 | 1.20 | 1.96 | 1.46 | 3.08 | 3.82 | 4.73 | 5.86 | 7.26 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | 0.55 | -3.29 | -0.71 | -8.62 | -1.31 | -4.72 | -5.85 | -7.25 | -8.98 |
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Accounts Payable | - | -0.20 | 3.78 | -0.26 | -1.09 | 3.61 | 1.81 | 2.24 | 2.77 | 3.43 |
| Capital Expenditure | -0.46 | -0.85 | -0.19 | -0.20 | -0.84 | -1.04 | -1.29 | -1.60 | -1.98 | -2.45 |
| UFCF | 8.08 | 11.44 | 11.67 | 11.42 | 3.67 | 26.55 | 27.11 | 33.58 | 41.60 | 51.52 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 24.57 | 23.23 | 26.64 | 30.54 | 35.02 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 139.99 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 8.03 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 52.55 |
| Terminal Value | 871.50 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 592.31 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 732.30 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | -345.90 |
| Equity Value | 1,078.20 |
| Shares Outstanding | 2.71 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 398.07 |