Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Virginia National Bankshares Corpor... (VABK)
$36.59
0.00 (0.00%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 28.22 | 27.28 | 30.26 | 55.45 | 64.40 | 81.63 | 103.46 | 131.13 | 166.20 | 210.65 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 14.56 | 13.69 | 15.35 | 16.66 | 33.41 | 38.26 | 48.50 | 61.47 | 77.91 | 98.75 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 13.33 | 12.49 | 13.39 | 15.20 | 30.54 | 34.63 | 43.89 | 55.63 | 70.50 | 89.36 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 1.23 | 1.20 | 1.96 | 1.46 | 2.87 | 3.64 | 4.61 | 5.84 | 7.40 | 9.38 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 73.13 | 128.95 | 182.20 | 660.19 | 578.28 | 558.71 | 708.14 | 897.53 | 1,137.57 | 1,441.82 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 5.87 | 9.16 | 9.87 | 18.49 | 13.15 | 22.97 | 29.12 | 36.91 | 46.78 | 59.29 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 1.52 | 5.31 | 5.05 | 3.95 | 1.51 | 8.33 | 10.56 | 13.38 | 16.96 | 21.50 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -0.85 | -0.19 | -0.20 | -0.80 | -0.93 | -1.18 | -1.50 | -1.90 | -2.41 | -3.05 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 36.59 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.545 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 2.71 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 17.89 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 27.28% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 6.052 |
| Total Debt | 9.59 |
| Total Equity | 99.11 |
| Total Capital | 108.69 |
| Debt Weighting | 8.82 |
| Equity Weighting | 91.18 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 28.22 | 27.28 | 30.26 | 55.45 | 64.40 | 81.63 | 103.46 | 131.13 | 166.20 | 210.65 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 14.56 | 13.69 | 15.35 | 16.66 | 33.41 | 38.26 | 48.50 | 61.47 | 77.91 | 98.75 |
| EBIT | 13.33 | 12.49 | 13.39 | 15.20 | 30.54 | 34.63 | 43.89 | 55.63 | 70.50 | 89.36 |
| Tax Rate | 19.63% | 18.59% | 20.56% | 16.01% | 17.89% | 18.54% | 18.54% | 18.54% | 18.54% | 18.54% |
| EBIAT | 10.71 | 10.17 | 10.64 | 12.77 | 25.08 | 28.21 | 35.75 | 45.32 | 57.44 | 72.80 |
| Depreciation | 1.23 | 1.20 | 1.96 | 1.46 | 2.87 | 3.64 | 4.61 | 5.84 | 7.40 | 9.38 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -3.29 | -0.71 | -8.62 | 5.33 | -9.82 | -6.14 | -7.79 | -9.87 | -12.51 |
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Accounts Payable | - | 3.78 | -0.26 | -1.09 | -2.44 | 6.82 | 2.23 | 2.82 | 3.58 | 4.54 |
| Capital Expenditure | -0.85 | -0.19 | -0.20 | -0.80 | -0.93 | -1.18 | -1.50 | -1.90 | -2.41 | -3.05 |
| UFCF | 11.09 | 11.67 | 11.42 | 3.71 | 29.91 | 27.66 | 34.95 | 44.29 | 56.14 | 71.15 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 25.63 | 30.01 | 35.24 | 41.39 | 48.61 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 180.86 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 7.92 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 72.58 |
| Terminal Value | 1,225.95 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 837.46 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 1,018.32 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | -30.50 |
| Equity Value | 1,048.82 |
| Shares Outstanding | 2.71 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 387.22 |