Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Vericel Corporation (VCEL)

$23.2

-0.55 (-2.32%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -9.87 | 23.2 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 63.9290.86117.85124.18156.18196.40246.96310.54390.50491.04
Revenue (%)
EBITDA -14.57-4.98-7.915.25-4.61-13.24-16.65-20.93-26.32-33.10
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -16.18-6.40-9.662.87-7.58-16.93-21.29-26.77-33.66-42.32
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 1.611.431.742.382.973.694.645.837.339.22
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 26.8682.9269.7246.63103.40116.35146.30183.97231.33290.89
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 18.2723.4532.17-2.3437.4440.7651.2664.4681.05101.92
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 3.793.566.82-2.5413.388.7010.9413.7617.3021.76
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 5.557.116.350.039.0210.8813.6817.2021.6327.20
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -1.51-2.68-2.62-2.63-7.92-5.78-7.27-9.14-11.49-14.45
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 23.2
Beta 2.062
Diluted Shares Outstanding 46.47
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 1.46
After-tax Cost of Debt 0.01%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 13.534
Total Debt 50.18
Total Equity 1,078.15
Total Capital 1,128.33
Debt Weighting 4.45
Equity Weighting 95.55
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 63.9290.86117.85124.18156.18196.40246.96310.54390.50491.04
EBITDA -14.57-4.98-7.915.25-4.61-13.24-16.65-20.93-26.32-33.10
EBIT -16.18-6.40-9.662.87-7.58-16.93-21.29-26.77-33.66-42.32
Tax Rate 0.00%0.00%0.00%5.91%1.46%1.48%1.48%1.48%1.48%1.48%
EBIAT -16.18-6.40-9.662.70-7.47-16.68-20.97-26.37-33.16-41.70
Depreciation 1.611.431.742.382.973.694.645.837.339.22
Accounts Receivable --5.18-8.7134.50-39.77-3.33-10.50-13.20-16.60-20.87
Inventories -0.24-3.269.36-15.924.68-2.24-2.82-3.54-4.45
Accounts Payable -1.56-0.76-6.318.981.862.803.524.435.57
Capital Expenditure -1.51-2.68-2.62-2.63-7.92-5.78-7.27-9.14-11.49-14.45
UFCF -16.08-11.05-23.2640.01-59.13-15.56-33.54-42.17-53.03-66.68
WACC
PV UFCF -13.77-26.30-29.28-32.60-36.30
SUM PV UFCF -138.26

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 12.93
Free cash flow (t + 1) -68.01
Terminal Value -622.27
Present Value of Terminal Value -338.79

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -477.05
Net Debt -18.15
Equity Value -458.90
Shares Outstanding 46.47
Equity Value Per Share -9.87