Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Victory Capital Holdings, Inc. (VCTR)

$23.64

-0.68 (-2.80%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 151.42 | 23.64 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 409.63413.41612.37775.35890.261,091.651,338.601,641.412,012.722,468.02
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 115.45126.71182.77331.93394.13383.74470.55576.99707.52867.57
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 85.54103.43158.90315.54351.97332.04407.15499.26612.20750.68
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 29.9123.2823.8716.3842.1651.7063.3977.7395.32116.88
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 13.6052.0937.8922.74150.1791.50112.20137.58168.70206.86
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 55.9244.1295.0988.186.55113.44139.11170.58209.16256.48
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories ----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 0.330.610.271.360.991.221.491.832.242.75
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -5.11-2.55-5.24-8.06-8.36-10.25-12.57-15.42-18.90-23.18
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 23.64
Beta 1.118
Diluted Shares Outstanding 74.15
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 20.61
After-tax Cost of Debt 1.74%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 9.239
Total Debt 1,127.92
Total Equity 1,752.93
Total Capital 2,880.85
Debt Weighting 39.15
Equity Weighting 60.85
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 409.63413.41612.37775.35890.261,091.651,338.601,641.412,012.722,468.02
EBITDA 115.45126.71182.77331.93394.13383.74470.55576.99707.52867.57
EBIT 85.54103.43158.90315.54351.97332.04407.15499.26612.20750.68
Tax Rate 32.85%24.98%23.36%23.70%20.61%25.10%25.10%25.10%25.10%25.10%
EBIAT 57.4577.60121.77240.76279.45248.70304.96373.95458.54562.27
Depreciation 29.9123.2823.8716.3842.1651.7063.3977.7395.32116.88
Accounts Receivable -11.80-50.976.9181.63-106.90-25.66-31.47-38.59-47.32
Inventories ----------
Accounts Payable -0.28-0.341.09-0.370.220.280.340.410.51
Capital Expenditure -5.11-2.55-5.24-8.06-8.36-10.25-12.57-15.42-18.90-23.18
UFCF 82.25110.4189.10257.08394.51183.48330.40405.14496.79609.17
WACC
PV UFCF 172.60292.40337.29389.08448.82
SUM PV UFCF 1,640.19

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 6.30
Free cash flow (t + 1) 621.35
Terminal Value 14,449.98
Present Value of Terminal Value 10,646.36

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 12,286.54
Net Debt 1,058.39
Equity Value 11,228.15
Shares Outstanding 74.15
Equity Value Per Share 151.42